Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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450 FXUS65 KTFX 092107 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion...RESENT National Weather Service Great Falls MT 307 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and mostly dry weather persists into next week, with the hottest days on Wednesday and Thursday. During the late week, there are low end chances for a few isolated light showers and thunderstorms, particularly across Southwest Montana. && .DISCUSSION... The heat will continue to build in through mid week as the strong upper ridge axis over the NW continues to slide east. Temperatures this afternoon will reach into low to mid 90s across most lower elevation locations. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the hottest days as that upper level ridge axis build in overhead. Temperatures will range between mid to upper 90s across lower elevations. Some locations (especially the Helena area)may reach 100F. A shortwave trough moving through the area on Thursday will bring a low chance of an isolated shower/thunderstorm during the evening (<20%). Moisture will be low however, with the 75th percentile of the NBM showing less than 0.05" with precipitation. -Wilson This weekend temperatures look to be higher than average in the mid to upper 90s as the ridge flattens and moves in from the west. Overnight lows remain in the 60s, bringing some relief from the hot temperatures. The rounding out of the ridge in Southwest Montana brings the possibility of thunderstorms, although chances of showers are low. The chance of locations receiving 0.10 of precipitation is 10-20%. There is an increase in fire weather concerns as the heat causes the fuels to dry out faster, and a slight chance of drier thunderstorms during the weekend. The high temperatures will likely remain very warm into next week. - Kiffe/Wilson && .AVIATION... 09/18Z TAF Period Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages the following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN, KEKS and KWYS. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with little or no clouds and light surface winds. The greatest impact to aviation operations is density altitude. - Fogleman Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .CLIMATE... Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are expected to reach near or at record temperatures. The following table below shows the forecasted temperatures with the records for that day at our climate sites. Record temperatures for July 10th: -------------------------------------------------------------------- Location Forecast(High/Low) Record High(Year) Record Warm Low(Year) ------ ----------------- ---------------- -------------------- Bozeman 96/57 100F (1973) 60F (1970) Cut Bank 95/58 101F (1973) 62F (1968) Dillon 93/56 95F (1973) 60F (1966) Great Falls 97/60 105F (1973) 67F (1985) Havre 98/60 105F (1973) 68F (1968) Helena 100/64 102F (1973) 69F (2001) Lewistown 92/58 100F (1939) 63F (2014) Record temperatures for July 11th: -------------------------------------------------------------------- Location Forecast(High/Low) Record High(Year) Record Warm Low(Year) ------ ----------------- ---------------- -------------------- Bozeman 97/58 97F (2002) 59F (1973) Cut Bank 96/60 95F (1917) 65F (1917) Dillon 94/57 99F (2002) 57F (1953) Great Falls 97/63 99F (2002) 70F (1957) Havre 99/63 105F (1886) 65F (1976) Helena 101/66 100F (2002) 69F (1985) Lewistown 91/61 92F (1925) 64F (2013) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 97 63 97 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 59 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 64 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 57 96 58 97 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 44 87 46 89 / 0 0 0 10 DLN 55 93 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 60 98 63 99 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 58 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls