971
FXUS65 KTFX 092219 CCA
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
419 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Heat and mostly dry weather persists into next week, with the
hottest days on Wednesday and Thursday. During the late week,
there are low end chances for a few isolated light showers and
thunderstorms, particularly across Southwest Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The heat will continue to build in through mid week as the strong
upper ridge axis over the NW continues to slide east.
Temperatures this afternoon will reach into low to mid 90s across
most lower elevation locations. Wednesday and Thursday look to be
the hottest days as that upper level ridge axis build in
overhead. Temperatures will range between mid to upper 90s across
lower elevations. Some locations (especially the Helena area) may
reach 100F. A shortwave trough moving through the area on
Thursday will bring a low chance of an isolated shower /
thunderstorm during the evening (<20%). Moisture will be low
however, with the 75th percentile of the NBM showing less than
0.05" with precipitation.
-Wilson

This weekend temperatures look to be higher than average in the
mid to upper 90s as the ridge flattens and moves in from the
west. Overnight lows remain in the 60s, bringing some relief from
the hot temperatures. The rounding out of the ridge in Southwest
Montana brings the possibility of thunderstorms, although chances
of showers are low. The chance of locations receiving 0.10 of
precipitation is 10-20%. There is an increase in fire weather
concerns as the heat causes the fuels to dry out faster, and a
slight chance of drier thunderstorms during the weekend. The high
temperatures will likely remain very warm into next week.
- Kiffe/Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
09/18Z TAF Period

Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages the
following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN, KEKS and
KWYS.

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with little or no
clouds and light surface winds. The greatest impact to aviation
operations is density altitude.
- Fogleman

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are expected to reach near or
at record temperatures. The following table below shows the
forecasted temperatures with the records for that day at our
climate sites.

Record temperatures for July 10th:

Location  Forecast     Record Warm   Record Warm
            (High/Low)     High(Year)    Low(Year)
Bozeman        96/57       100 (1973)    60 (1970)
Cut Bank       95/58       101 (1973)    62 (1968)
Dillon         93/56        95 (1973)    60 (1966)
Great Falls    97/60       105 (1973)    67 (1985)
Havre          98/60       105 (1973)    68 (1968)
Helena        100/64       102 (1973)    69 (2001)
Lewistown      92/58       100 (1939)    63 (2014)


Record temperatures for July 11th:

Location  Forecast     Record Warm   Record Warm
            (High/Low)     High(Year)    Low(Year)
Bozeman        97/58        97 (2002)    59 (1973)
Cut Bank       96/60        95 (1917)    65 (1917)
Dillon         94/57        99 (2002)    57 (1953)
Great Falls    97/63        99 (2002)    70 (1957)
Havre          99/63       105 (1886)    65 (1976)
Helena        101/66       100 (2002)    69 (1985)
Lewistown      91/61        92 (1925)    64 (2013)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  97  63  97 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  59  95  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  64 100  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  57  96  58  97 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  44  87  46  89 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  55  93  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  98  63  99 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  58  92  61  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls