Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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497 FXUS65 KTFX 110955 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 355 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry weather prevails across the region into next week beneath a strong upper level ridge of high pressure in place across the inter-mountain Western United States. Isolated shower and thunderstorm development is possible each afternoon, though little or no measurable precipitation is expected. Breezy winds are possible near any isolated showers and storms with a period of windy conditions possible Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Widely scattered high-based showers with some isolated lightning are moving east into central MT early this morning. This is beneath a field of mid level clouds (likely ACC) seen in satellite imagery and associated with a subtle shortwave disturbance and incoming upper level wind maximum moving over the strong upper level ridge in place across the Northern Rockies. This activity should dissipate later this morning but is an indicator of the presence of limited moisture and subtle lift that will move across the region this afternoon, potentially leading to a greater coverage of elevated showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, heat will continue to be the main weather story with temperatures approaching daily records again this afternoon. The weak disturbance moving over the ridge today results in some very minor cooling on Friday, mostly focused across north-central MT as weak surface high pressure temporarily moves across southern AB/SK, shifting winds to more northerly across the Plains. Heat will re-intensify across the area on Saturday as the upper level ridge strengthens a bit and becomes centered across the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. A belt of stronger winds aloft also moves over the ridge Saturday, which will lead to at least breezy conditions, while an associated disturbance potentially supports some isolated high-based showers/thunderstorms across the central/SW MT mountains late Saturday and Saturday night. Later this weekend through next week, upper level ridging remains in place for continued above normal warmth. Precipitation chances look to remain very limited, though some monsoon related moisture may begin to circulate around the ridge for an increased risk of terrain-based showers and thunderstorms, but chanced measurable precipitation will remain very low. Hoenisch && .AVIATION... 11/06Z TAF Period The main concern this TAF period will be for afternoon and early evening high-based showers and thunderstorms that will carry a gusty and erratic wind threat. Given the uncertainty with respect to timing, location and coverage of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday, mention has been left out of TAFs for the time being. Otherwise the main concerns will be for locally reduced visibility from wildfire smoke, in addition to density altitude concerns from mid-morning through the early evening. Light winds become westerly to northwesterly Thursday afternoon, with breezy winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. -AM Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .FIRE WEATHER... Near record heat and low humidity will continue to rapidly dry fuels and increase fire danger across the area with several fire weather concerns over the next several days. In addition to the heat and dryness today, localized gusty and erratic winds are possible this afternoon near any high-based showers and isolated thunderstorms along with the potential for isolated lightning. On Saturday the combination of deep afternoon mixing and stronger westerly flow aloft could lead to more widespread gusty west winds, especially across central MT fire districts where deepest mixing is expected. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 98 60 89 60 / 10 10 0 0 CTB 95 58 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 100 63 98 61 / 10 10 0 0 BZN 97 58 96 56 / 20 10 0 0 WYS 87 46 87 45 / 10 10 0 0 DLN 92 55 94 55 / 10 10 0 0 HVR 100 61 90 60 / 10 10 10 0 LWT 92 60 86 58 / 10 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls