815
FXUS65 KTFX 111513
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
913 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot and dry weather prevails across the region into next week
beneath a strong upper level ridge of high pressure in place
across the inter-mountain Western United States. Isolated shower
and thunderstorm development is possible each afternoon, though
little or no measurable precipitation is expected. Breezy winds
are possible near any isolated showers and storms with a period
of windy conditions possible Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Slight changes were made to the winds and high temperatures this
afternoon for the lower elevations of central and north-central
Montana to reflect updated model guidance and recent observations.
Otherwise no major changes were made to the going forecast. At
this point in time, the fire weather risk for the weekend is still
being assessed and will be addressed in greater detail with the
afternoon forecast package.

-thor

&&

.AVIATION...
11/12Z TAF Period

Scattered mid-level clouds and few isolated showers with elevated
cloud bases moving across central MT early this morning will
decrease through mid-morning. Cumulus development may lead to the
development of additional high-based showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon with main impact to aviation being
gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of any showers. Otherwise,
VFR conditions prevail with westerly to northwesterly surface winds
increasing some this afternoon. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Near record heat and low humidity will continue to rapidly dry
fuels and increase fire danger across the area with several fire
weather concerns over the next several days. In addition to the
heat and dryness today, localized gusty and erratic winds are
possible this afternoon near any high-based showers and isolated
thunderstorms along with the potential for isolated lightning. On
Saturday the combination of deep afternoon mixing and stronger
westerly flow aloft could lead to more widespread gusty west
winds, especially across central MT fire districts where deepest
mixing is expected. Hoenisch

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR JUL 11:

LOCATION             FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH
Bozeman MSU              94                 96
Chester                  97                100
Chinook                  99                102
Conrad                   96                 99
Cut Bank                 95                 95
Great Falls              98                 99
Helena                  100                100
Stanford                 92                 94
Townsend                 95                 98

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024/

Widely scattered high-based showers with some isolated lightning are
moving east into central MT early this morning. This is beneath a
field of mid level clouds (likely ACC) seen in satellite imagery
and associated with a subtle shortwave disturbance and incoming
upper level wind maximum moving over the strong upper level ridge
in place across the Northern Rockies. This activity should
dissipate later this morning but is an indicator of the presence
of limited moisture and subtle lift that will move across the
region this afternoon, potentially leading to a greater coverage
of elevated showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, heat will continue
to be the main weather story with temperatures approaching daily
records again this afternoon.

The weak disturbance moving over the ridge today results in some
very minor cooling on Friday, mostly focused across north-central MT
as weak surface high pressure temporarily moves across southern
AB/SK, shifting winds to more northerly across the Plains. Heat will
re-intensify across the area on Saturday as the upper level ridge
strengthens a bit and becomes centered across the eastern Great
Basin and central Rockies. A belt of stronger winds aloft also
moves over the ridge Saturday, which will lead to at least breezy
conditions, while an associated disturbance potentially supports
some isolated high-based showers/thunderstorms across the
central/SW MT mountains late Saturday and Saturday night.

Later this weekend through next week, upper level ridging remains in
place for continued above normal warmth. Precipitation chances
look to remain very limited, though some monsoon related moisture
may begin to circulate around the ridge for an increased risk of
terrain-based showers and thunderstorms, but chanced measurable
precipitation will remain very low. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  98  60  90  60 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  96  58  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN 101  63  98  61 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  98  58  96  56 /  20  10   0   0
WYS  87  46  87  45 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  92  55  94  55 /  10  10   0   0
HVR 101  61  91  60 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  93  60  87  58 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls