Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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494 FXUS65 KTFX 142313 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 515 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Aviation Section Updated .SYNOPSIS... Well above normal temperatures and overall dry conditions will persist through the week as upper level ridging dominates over the Northern Rockies. While isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day through at least the middle of the work week, most notably in Southwest and North Central Montana, most areas will remain dry. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today through tonight...A surface front will move south from Alberta late this afternoon and across the plains of North Central and Central Montana through the the evening hours tonight. This front will bring a wind shift to the north, in addition to a period of breezy and gusty winds. As the front advances south, expect thunderstorms to develop across Southern Alberta initially, with thunderstorms then propagating to the southeast across portions of North Central Montana, generally northeast of a Marias Pass, to Conrad, to Loma, to Hays line. Sufficient shear and instability northeast of this line will support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighting at least a Marginal Risk for most of the aforementioned area. The primary threat with any thunderstorm that does become severe will be large hail in excess of 1" (~15% chance of occurring) and/or damaging wind gusts greater than 58 mph (~15% chance of occurring), with the peak window for severe thunderstorms occurring between 4-10 PM MDT. Additional thunderstorms are also possible along and south of a White Sulphur Springs (WSS) to Helena line given the arrival of monsoonal moisture to portions of the Northern Rockies, most notably south of the I-90 corridor. For areas south of the WSS to Helena line, while severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight, gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any thunderstorm given very dry air in the low levels (i.e. inverted-V soundings). These gusty and erratic winds will be especially concerning where they occur in proximity to existing fires. - Moldan Monday through next Sunday...Temperatures cool down by a few degrees on Monday in the wake of the passing weather system, but many locations will be breezy with minimum relative humidities dipping critically low again. Isolated shower thunderstorm activity with little rainfall relief can also be expected. The latest 3 to 7 day cluster analysis still favors the upper level ridge amplifying mid- late week, yielding more hot and dry conditions while lingering moisture bring daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms. - RCG && .AVIATION... 15/00Z TAF Period Showers/thunderstorms will affect Southwest MT through this evening, with the better chance for storms south of a line from Dillon to Big Sky. A few thunderstorms are possible this evening in the Havre/Harlem areas. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected overnight elsewhere. A few isolated storms could redevelop though towards Monday evening along the MT/ID border near West Yellowstone and then also in the Havre/Harlem areas once again. Some distant mountains will be obscured by smoke/clouds through the period. Brusda Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .FIRE WEATHER... Well above normal high temperatures and dry conditions, with minimum relative humidity values falling into the teens to 20s percent, will persist through the foreseeable future across all of Southwest through North Central Montana. Monsoonal moisture, which has made its way beneath the upper level ridge, will continue to bring daily chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to portions of Central and Southwest Montana through at least the middle of the upcoming work week. Given that this monsoonal moisture is mostly elevated, a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms can generally be expected through this timeframe. Very dry air in the low to mid- levels will allow for the transfer of gusty and erratic winds to the surface beneath these thunderstorms, especially beneath any collapsing cores. Further north across North Central Montana, subtle waves moving over the ridge axis and dropping southeast will help to support additional chances for thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will be on the wetter side given PWATs of 1-2 standard deviations above normal; however, given the continued rapid drying of fuels a stray lightning strike outside of any precipitation core may lead to additional fire starts. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 57 93 56 90 / 10 0 0 10 CTB 51 91 53 89 / 30 20 20 20 HLN 61 97 57 96 / 10 0 0 10 BZN 57 93 52 93 / 20 10 10 10 WYS 51 82 42 83 / 50 40 30 30 DLN 59 88 50 88 / 30 20 10 10 HVR 55 90 56 91 / 30 20 20 20 LWT 54 87 53 86 / 10 20 10 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls