Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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581 FXUS65 KTFX 130241 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 841 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Expect hot, dry and windy conditions return on Saturday, with the warm temperatures continuing into Sunday. Additionally, isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity is forecast for Saturday in the Havre and Harlem areas. && .UPDATE... Updated forecast is out. Main adjustment was to add some thunderstorms to Southwest MT for areas south of I-90 and east of Dillon. Just general thunderstorms expected, with some storms producing wind gusts near 30 mph. Most storms will exit our CWA by Midnight. Otherwise, a windy, hot and dry day is expected over Southwest MT. Thus the Red Flag Warning will continue. Further north, there is a chance for a severe storm in the Havre/Harlem area with the potential supercell that could develop towards Saturday evening as storms move southeast out of Canada into North Central MT. Hopefully the storm will not be as strong as the isolated supercell in the Glasgow area this evening. We will also have to keep an eye on far Southwest MT on Saturday evening for the potential of a few storms, especially right near the MT/ID border. Brusda && .AVIATION... 13/00Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during this TAF period. Winds will be light and variable for most of the TAF period excluding the first few hours and the last few hours when they will increase. Due to being under an upper-level ridge mostly few to scattered hi-level clouds will be around all terminals with hot temperatures Saturday late morning through the end of the TAF period. Due to the hot-temperatures there will be density altitude concerns primarily Saturday afternoon through the end of the TAF period. Wildfire smoke will be around the KEKS and KBZN terminals tonight through Saturday morning. This smoke has a low chance of local visibility reductions. Tonight at the KEKS, KBZN, and KWYS terminals there is a 20% chance for a isolated thunderstorm. As a result of the low probability a mention of thunderstorms is not included in those TAFs excluding the KEKS TAF. There is currently a thunderstorm near the KEKS terminal which will move out of the area in the next hour. At the KHVR terminal there is a 20% chance for a isolated thunderstorm. As a result of the low probability a mention of thunderstorms is not included in that TAF. -IG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .FIRE WEATHER... Very warm to hot temperatures and low humidity continue to rapidly dry fuels and increase fire danger across the area with several fire weather concerns over the next several days. In addition to the heat and dryness, localized gusty and erratic winds are possible near any high-based showers and isolated thunderstorms along with occasional lightning strikes. On Saturday the combination of deep afternoon mixing and stronger westerly flow aloft leads to more widespread gusty westerly winds, especially across the central Montana fire districts where deepest mixing is expected. A Red Flag Warning is valid from Saturday at 2 PM through Saturday and midnight for Fire Weather Zones 117 and 118. - RCG/Fogleman && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024/ Today, a cold front entering our region from the north, brings a northerly wind shift and some relatively cooler temperatures to the region. Sufficient atmospheric instability exists to allow for some isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. An upper level trof removes mass from the dominant upper level ridge, favoring a tighter upper level height gradient with some gusty surface winds at times, for the weekend ahead. Considering tomorrow`s hot, dry and windy conditions, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of central and southwest Montana, valid from tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. For the most current Fire Weather Discussion, please, scroll down toward the bottom of this document. - Fogleman Saturday looks to be the most active day weatherwise with breezy to windy and dry conditions expected for most locations. There will also be a bit more instability and moisture for a few stronger thunderstorms, mostly over Hill and Blaine Counties. Forecast soundings are starting to show longer hodographs favorable for at least a short opportunity for marginally severe weather Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, the focus will mostly be on the gusty winds and potential red flag conditions over Southwest and portions of Central Montana where fuels are the driest and fire activity is already being observed. Many of these locations have over a 70% chance for 20 mph sustained winds and a 30 to 50% chance for wind gusts over 40 mph. This in combination with expected RHs in the lower teens continues to warrant the Fire Weather Watch already in place. I continued to hold off on adding fire zone 117 to the watch area with it looking to be a shorter period of gusty winds and lower RHs, though this area will still need to be monitored by upcoming shifts for any changes. Winds diminish Saturday night before picking up once again on Sunday as another shortwave moves from the northwest. While winds will be on the gustier side throughout the entire forecast area, winds don`t appear to be quite as strong for as long of a period of time over the southwest and northern areas will see slightly cooler temperatures and higher RHs move in by the afternoon hours. Lighter winds are expected for much of next week as westerly flow weakens and the ridge begins to slowly become more amplified. Still weak perturbations moving within the ridge look to maintain daily isolated shower and thunder activity. Temperatures will mostly stay in the upper 80s and lower 90s until the end of the week when peak amplification of the ridge pushes temperatures back into the 90s to near 100 again. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 58 95 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 55 90 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 60 100 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 55 97 58 96 / 20 10 0 0 WYS 44 87 47 85 / 20 20 10 10 DLN 54 94 57 91 / 10 0 0 10 HVR 60 93 59 91 / 0 20 0 0 LWT 57 91 57 89 / 10 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 2 PM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls