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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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457 FXUS65 KTFX 170145 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 745 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and mostly dry weather continues for the foreseeable future as upper level ridging remains parked over the area. A few pop up showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, but these will bring little rain, even to those who find themselves directly under the showers and storms. && .UPDATE... Although upper level ridging is present across the region, enough instability has been around near the Idaho border to result in a few showers and thunderstorms early this evening. The expectation is for these chances to diminish later this evening and overnight. Guidance has also hinted at a chance for showers tomorrow morning east of Havre, but I did not opt to include a mention there at this time given the overwhelming majority of guidance keeping the area dry. Overall changes to the forecast were minor this evening. -AM && .AVIATION... 17/00Z TAF Period The concerns over this TAF period include isolated showers or thunderstorms early this evening near terrain, reduced slantwise visibility due to smoke through the TAF period, and another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms this evening was far too low to warrant any mention in TAFs. Additionally, low confidence in timing and location for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow precluded precipitation mention in TAFs. As always in the summer, density altitude concerns will exist. -AM Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024/ Key Points: -Warm and mostly dry weather continues with just a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day -In addition to the warmth, smoke from fires near and far will continue to push into Montana over the coming days, bringing periods of reduced air quality Short term (through Friday)... Upper level ridging will continue to persist across the Western United States over the next few days, keeping warm and dry weather conditions in place. Highs through the end of the work week will generally be in the low to mid 90s with RH values dipping into the teens and low 20s for much of the area each afternoon. Even with the dry air, a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms will pop up each afternoon, with a few of these showers producing locally gusty outflow winds to 30 or 40 mph at times. While severe weather is not expected at this time, we will have to watch for some of the storms to be on the dry side, potentially producing some lightning outside of where the storms produce rainfall, increasing the risk for some new fire starts or holdover fires that could ignite over the coming days. Speaking of fire, we will also have some smoke continue to work into the area from fires in Montana and Washington, resulting in periods of reduced air quality. Extended (Friday through next Tuesday)... The upper level ridge currently overhead will not move much during the extended period either, resulting in a continuation of the warm and mostly dry weather into early next week. With little change in the overall weather pattern, expect temperatures to not change much early next week, with continued chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. We may have to watch the middle of next week for an increase in the heat as an upper level low pushes into the Pacific Northwest, which could help amplify the ridge overhead, but much uncertainty remains with this setup at this time. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 94 64 93 / 0 10 10 20 CTB 56 92 60 90 / 10 0 20 20 HLN 60 98 64 99 / 0 10 10 10 BZN 55 94 57 95 / 0 10 10 10 WYS 44 83 44 83 / 20 30 10 20 DLN 52 90 55 92 / 0 10 10 10 HVR 61 94 63 94 / 0 0 10 30 LWT 56 88 60 90 / 0 10 10 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls