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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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335 FXUS65 KTFX 181545 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 945 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A passing weather system will bring an increased chance for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today. A few storms may be on the stronger side with brief strong, gusty winds, lightning, and downpours, especially in Central and North-central Montana. Otherwise, the hot and mostly dry weather pattern looks to continue through the weekend and beyond. && .UPDATE... No update planned for the morning forecast, as current forecast is on track. Isolated thunderstorms east of Shelby and east of Ulm this morning are slowly diminishing. Do expect more widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon over North Central MT. An isolated severe storm is possible, with the main threat being strong wind gusts. Afternoon temperatures will rise into the 90s for most lower elevation locations, with areas of smoke/haze throughout the day. Brusda && .AVIATION... 18/12Z TAF Period An area of light showers/virga and a few embedded thunderstorms will move through the Rocky Mountain Front and portions of Central/North- central MT this morning. Then widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected area wide this afternoon and evening. A few storms may be on the stronger side with strong, gusty winds, lightning, and brief downpours. Hazy skies will continue to impact slantwise visibility and hot afternoon temperatures will impact density altitude. - RCG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ Showers and embedded thunderstorms are approaching the Continental Divide this morning while the responsible shortwave centered over E WA continues to trek eastward toward the Northern Rockies. This initial area of convection looks to reach the Rocky Mountain Front an hour or two early, but will still follow the overall expected path through the North-central plains through the morning hours. This shouldn`t be too impactful, but there will be an additional round of widely scattered showers and storms for this afternoon and evening. The boundary layer is still relatively dry, so there`s an expectation for a mix of wet and dry storms with the best chance for drier storms south of a Helena to Lewistown line. The combination of higher PWATs approaching the 0.75 to 1 inch mark, with ML CAPE values around 500 to 1,000 J/kg and inverted V profiles may result in at least a few storms becoming strong to severe with strong, gusty winds, brief downpours, and even some hail. Of course the occurrences of rain and hail, if any, look to be reserved to the Central/North-central areas, particularly areas east of I15. Since southwestern areas will have less available moisture, gusty winds and lightning in the presence of little rainfall will be more of a concern. Most shower and storm activity will begin to diminish during the evening hours, though at least some showers and storms lingering into the overnight hours can be expected, mostly for Hill, Blaine, Fergus, and eastern Chouteau counties. These same locations may be become susceptible to patchy fog development once things do partially clear out late tonight into Friday morning. Despite all the talk of today`s moisture, ridging will still be strong enough to warm most lower elevations in the 90s this afternoon and the overall hot and dry pattern will persist through the weekend into next week. Once today`s shortwave exits the region later tonight, instances of showers and thunderstorms look to become much more isolated again, but won`t completely go away. The latest 3 to 7 day cluster analysis shows some ridge amplification early next week before becoming dampened some by troughing late in the week. Temperatures will roughly follow this pattern by rising a few degrees Tuesday and Wednesday and then dropping off a little again on Thursday. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 92 59 93 61 / 30 20 0 0 CTB 89 54 92 58 / 30 20 0 10 HLN 97 61 97 63 / 20 10 0 0 BZN 94 56 93 56 / 30 30 0 0 WYS 85 44 84 43 / 50 40 20 10 DLN 90 54 89 54 / 30 10 10 0 HVR 93 59 94 62 / 50 50 0 10 LWT 90 55 87 58 / 40 50 10 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls