898
FXUS65 KTFX 190237
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
837 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.UPDATE...

A rather compact lobe of mid level vorticity has rounded the top of
the ridge just north of the Canadian border and is continuing to
head eastward/southeastward this evening. Around and underneath this
wave, cooler temperatures aloft combined with ample daytime mixing
has resulted in a couple bands of showers and thunderstorms.
Although an outside chance remains that one of these thunderstorms
could produce a strong wind gust across eastern portions of North-
central Montana, the window for it to occur is closing.

The influence if the upper level wave decreases further southwest
across Southwest Montana, but will be enough to continue showers and
a few thunderstorms this evening and early overnight. Overall, the
chance for stronger storms is much lower across Southwest Montana.

Tweaks to the forecast this evening were relatively minor -
incorporation of latest guidance and latest trends were taken into
account. No significant changes overall. -AM

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening, as very warm
afternoon temperatures will continue for at least the next week.
The above normal temperatures could result in near record high
temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/00Z TAF Period

The main concern this TAF period is for showers and thunderstorms
this evening. The vast majority of showers and thunderstorms
diminish or exit eastward by 03Z or so, with only a few isolated
showers or thunderstorms persisting into the early overnight.
Additional showers and a few thunderstorms look to form around
terrain again Friday afternoon, but confidence in any impacts to
terminals across Southwest and Central Montana is far too low at
this time to include mention in TAFs. Density altitude concerns from
hot temperatures, as well as slant range visibility concerns due to
wildfire smoke will continue this TAF period. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 452 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024/
Tonight through Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue to move from west to east across the CWA this
evening. A few storms could be strong, with an isolated severe
storm possible. The main threat from any severe storm will be
gusty winds. Expect above normal afternoon temperatures to
continue for the next week. There is a small potential that a few
locations could approach near record high temperatures early next
week. After today, the chances for any more showers/thunderstorms
is very limited, with most areas having less than a 10 percent
chance through next next Thursday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  92  62  94 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  56  92  58  94 /  20  10  10   0
HLN  62  98  63  98 /  10   0   0  10
BZN  56  94  56  95 /  30   0   0  10
WYS  45  85  44  85 /  40  10  10  10
DLN  54  89  53  90 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  60  95  63  97 /  30   0   0  10
LWT  56  87  58  88 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls