Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
169 FXUS62 KTBW 081204 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 804 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 High pressure remains over the state this morning with continued hot and humid conditions today prompting a Heat Advisory issuance effective from noon to 6 PM for heat indices as high as 108-111 degrees. Ridge axis continues to gradually shift southward with S-SE flow this morning evident via pre-dawn coastal and offshore showers and storms currently spreading N-NW over W FL and E Gulf locations. Flow turns onshore later this morning into afternoon as the sea breeze progresses inland with accompanying shower/storm chances migrating from coastal to interior locations where highest afternoon and evening PoPs are likely. Highs generally in the lower to mid 90s with feels like temps in the triple digits. SW flow pattern persists through the week featuring highest PoPs over the E Gulf and coastal areas during the AM hours before shifting to interior locations during the PM hours. After today, moderating temps will favor slightly less hot and humid conditions reducing the likelihood of reaching heat advisory criteria for most of the area. Highs are likely to run in the lower 90s with heat indices of around 100-105 degrees expected. Ridge axis expected to shift north late week into the weekend shifting the SW flow in place for the majority of the week to easterly into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 801 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Thundestorm activity looks to mainly be in the afternoon along the coastal TAF sites before shifting inland and towards the east coast in the afternoon. Bumped up timing of VCTS due to this and ended it earlier also at coastal sites. VFR conditions and winds mainly below 10 knots outside of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Weak high pressure remains over the waters with generally light winds and seas 2 ft or less through the week with no headlines expected. Main concern will be thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds, higher seas, and lightning for mariners. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 No fire weather concerns expected with continued warm and humid summertime conditions with light winds and afternoon seabreezes. The light flow will lead to areas of fairly low dispersion index values, with gusty erratic winds and dangerous lightning possible with thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 81 90 80 / 70 40 70 40 FMY 93 79 92 78 / 40 10 50 30 GIF 96 78 92 76 / 80 40 80 40 SRQ 92 81 92 79 / 50 30 50 40 BKV 95 76 90 75 / 70 40 80 50 SPG 91 82 91 83 / 60 40 60 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close