Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
379 FXUS62 KTBW 081850 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 250 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 We are going through a transition day as the ridge has started to shift south. This has resulted in a more southerly flow across the area with the main focus of showers being along the coast in the early afternoon and inland in the late afternoon and evening hours. By tomorrow the ridge will be to our south which will bring our winds southwesterly for the rest of our week. This will bring us into seabreeze regime 4. This regime typically keeps us a little drier across our area with most of the storms staying on the east coast of Florida. The best chance to see the rain along the coast will be in the early morning hours with early afternoon storms inland. This shift in winds will also help to keep us a few degrees cooler which should keep us away from heat advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Thundestorm activity looks to mainly be in the afternoon along the coastal TAF sites before shifting inland and towards the east coast in the late afternoon and evening hours. VFR conditions and winds mainly below 10 knots outside of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Southwesterly flow will remain for much of the period with winds generally staying at or below 10 knots. The best chance for showers and storms will be in the overnight and early morning each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 91 80 91 / 40 70 40 60 FMY 79 92 78 92 / 10 50 20 60 GIF 78 91 77 92 / 30 70 40 60 SRQ 81 90 80 91 / 20 50 30 50 BKV 76 90 75 91 / 40 70 40 60 SPG 82 90 83 91 / 40 60 40 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close