Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
004 FXUS62 KTBW 092322 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 722 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Thunderstorm activity continues to push east and is winding down outside South Florida. There are just a couple isolated locations still reporting light rain; that should come to an end soon. It`s been a cloudy evening for most with large convective blowoff pushing back west. Really, much of the Gulf is on the cloudier side with the dynamic pattern in place for this time of year. Given this pattern, the expectation is still for a few coastal storms tomorrow morning. However, with some drier air working into the region as Saharan Dust also drifts across the peninsula, the overall coverage is likely to be lower. This is in line with the current forecast, which remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 An upper-level low is spinning off the FL East Coast as a shortwave carries the remnants of Beryl off to the NE. Weak ridging remains at the surface in response, but is suppressed by the more amplified pattern. The result is a more light and variable flow through the column and a weak WSW surface-based flow. This combination has shifted the best timing for thunderstorms from the afternoon and evening to the overnight and early morning. However, the wild card in all this is drier air and Saharan Dust. These have been limiting factors for thunderstorm development, and will continue to be for the next few days. However, the actual amount of impact will largely depend on how much low-level moisture remains present, and if thunderstorm development continues to be robust along that boundary. As the pattern flattens this week and the subtropical ridge builds back east, there will be an eventual return to more of an easterly flow. Once this happens the timing for thunderstorms will again flip back to the afternoon and evening, with warm, humid and mostly sunny mornings to start. Overall, typical summertime weather will continue. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Dry conditions are expected through the evening as thunderstorms wind down to the east. Towards morning, some convection could redevelop over adjacent coastal waters, drifting towards some coastal terminals. There is a 30% chance of mainly showers at terminals like KTPA, KPIE, and KSRQ. Conditions do not currently support any morning convection across SWFL. The sea breeze is most favorable for development of storms across SWFL, meaning that the potential comes in the afternoon as opposed to the morning. However, drier air and Saharan dust means that activity should be less for the next couple days at least, despite a westerly flow prevailing. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 A light WSW flow has settled in, with the best potential for showers and storms during the overnight and early morning hours across coastal waters. This pattern will continue until the weekend, when the flow veers back to the east once more. Seas of 1 to 2 feet are expected through the week, with higher seas in and around thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 While a little drier air is working in, ample moisture and humidity will remain near the surface. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected in response, but lower coverage especially across SWFL is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 92 81 91 / 20 30 20 60 FMY 79 93 79 92 / 20 30 10 60 GIF 77 94 77 92 / 20 40 20 60 SRQ 80 93 80 92 / 20 20 20 60 BKV 76 93 76 92 / 20 40 30 60 SPG 84 93 84 92 / 20 30 20 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Flannery