Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
213 FXUS62 KTBW 101849 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 249 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Sahara Dust over the state is helping to suppress much of the shower activity today. On top of that southwesterly flow will keep the shower that do form mainly on the east coast. The only exception will be Southwest Florida which will have a chance to see a shower or two. Sahara Dust will move away by tomorrow and a front pushing through south Georgia will help to bring a strong SW Flow. This along with higher PW should help to increase shower and storms in the late morning and early afternoon hours before storms shift to the east coast later in the day. Friday will be more a neutral flow day with slow moving storms and localized flooding risk. As we go into the week a trough will be pushing into the Carolinas which will result in our flow regime shifting easterly. This typically bring more activity to the west coast of the Florida especial in the afternoon and evening hours. The easterly flow will continue into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Due to some Sahara Dust across the area we are expecting some drier conditions today with only PGD, FMY and RSW with a chance for some VCTS. VFR conditions and winds generally below 10 knots are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Winds will remain out of the west through the rest of the week. Best chance of see any showers and storms again will be overnight and early morning hours each day. By the weekend we will see a wind shift to the east. This will bring shower chances more in the late evening hours in the Gulf as seabreeze storms start to push off the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 81 89 79 / 30 20 70 50 FMY 93 79 90 78 / 40 20 60 30 GIF 94 78 89 76 / 40 20 80 30 SRQ 91 80 90 78 / 30 10 60 50 BKV 92 75 89 75 / 40 30 70 40 SPG 91 83 89 81 / 20 20 60 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard