Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
249 FXUS62 KTBW 111125 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 725 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected outside of convective activity. An area of showers and a few storms continues to drift southward toward KTPA/KPIE/KLAL and could cause brief restrictions. Additional activity is expected to shift southward through the rest of the day, with periodic MVFR/IFR cigs and/or vsbys possible in any storms. There continue to be some hints of showers or storms before daybreak tomorrow, mainly near Tampa Bay terminals and will continue to monitor this trend through the day. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)... Issued at 413 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A few showers and isolated storms have been developing along the Nature Coast this morning. This is as a weak U/L trough remains east of the Peninsula while ridging persists over the state and across the Gulf. At the surface, a boundary stretching along the Southeast remains in place with westerly flow prevailing. This combined with the Saharan Dust exiting the area, should allow a gradual increase in moisture and therefore an increase in shower and storm chances through the day. The current flow should support highest chances along the coast in the morning and early afternoon, and pushing inland later in the day. For today, the aforementioned area of low pressure could push add some upper level support to the convection, and as a result slightly stronger storms are possible especially during the afternoon with peak daytime heating. The two limiting factor to keep this from materializing would be how long it would take for the atmosphere the moisten up as some of the direr air is still in place at the lower levels, and whether there is enough break in the clouds. In addition, cloud coverage should keep afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, but dewpoints in the high 70s will make conditions feel very muggy and uncomfortable through the period. On Friday, moisture would be higher and some the energy aloft could still support some stronger storms as less cloud coverage allows for more instability. && .LONG TERM (SAT-WED)... Issued at 413 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Going into the weekend and into net week, high pressure remains in place but shifts slightly north along the East Coast and allowing a light easterly flow to take place. This should support higher rain chances along the coast during the afternoon as the sea breeze moves in. Light flow could also bring some slow moving storms and the potential for localized flooding. Temperatures remain in the 90s with triple digit heat indices during this time. Just summertime in paradise... && .MARINE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf waters and low pressure over the Atlantic will keep winds out of the west through the rest of the week. This should support showers and storms overnight and early morning hours each day. Then, high pressure builds along the East Coast resulting in a wind shift from the east during the weekend. Showers and storm chances then be highest in the late evening hours as sea breeze storms start to push off the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 413 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 High pressure to the west and an area pf low pressure to the east will support west to southwesterly flow across fire districts through the period. In addition, ample moisture should keep minimum RHs well above critical levels with showers and storms expected each day during this time. The lack of winds and high moisture should keep any fire weather concerns out of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 79 90 79 / 60 50 70 20 FMY 91 78 90 77 / 60 40 70 10 GIF 90 76 93 76 / 70 30 70 10 SRQ 92 79 91 78 / 60 50 70 20 BKV 90 75 93 75 / 60 30 60 20 SPG 90 81 91 82 / 60 50 70 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Aviation...05/Carlisle Previous...Delerme