Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
996 FXUS62 KTBW 121754 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 154 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .DISCUSSION... Mid/upper troughing lingers over the region this afternoon with a surface low right off the northeast Florida coast. Some drier air has wrapped around the trough and is limiting rainfall over our northern zones and this trend should continue through the rest of the day. We still have low-level westerly flow so activity elsewhere will continue to shift inland. Another relatively quiet overnight period is expected, but then hi-res guidance is showing some activity popping up near the Tampa Bay region toward daybreak. Saturday will be the last day of southwest to west flow with highest rain chances east of the coast as the Atlantic ridge starts to build in over the region once again. This will cause a shift to a more southeasterly wind flow that continues through next week. Rain chances will then be highest toward the west coast later in the day, which could also lead to some heat issues with the later start to the storms and we could certainly see heat indices near or above Advisory criteria in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, though brief restrictions will be possible in any remaining storms through the day. Showers and some storms will be possible near coastal sites starting late morning through early afternoon and then shifting eastward through tomorrow. && .MARINE... Southwest to west winds will continue through Saturday before becoming easterly Sunday through next week with no headlines expected. This shift will cause the best rain chances to go from earlier in the day on Saturday to the later afternoon and evening hours starting on Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 92 79 92 / 20 60 40 70 FMY 77 93 79 94 / 30 70 30 60 GIF 77 95 78 95 / 30 70 20 70 SRQ 79 93 78 94 / 30 60 40 60 BKV 75 93 75 94 / 20 70 30 70 SPG 83 93 83 93 / 20 60 40 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ 05/Carlisle