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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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915 FXUS62 KTBW 200702 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 302 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Expect the fairly typical summertime pattern to continue through the weekend and next week with stacked ridging over the region from the W Atlantic extending over the N FL Peninsula and into the N Gulf with generally a SE flow regime for the CWA. The warm and humid conditions will continue as well with heat index values of 102-107. SAL is also expected to intermittently move through the region next week with minor impacts on POPs. Expect late morning/early afternoon showers and storms along the west coast sea breeze drifting inland and producing outflow boundaries, then the E coast seabreeze produces late afternoon inland collisions that will eventually push the convection back towards the W coast in the evening that moves offshore overnight through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue this morning then increasing cloud cover and seabreeze initiated TSRA starting around 18Z and continuing through 00Z with VCTS areawide. Late afternoon Prob30s for brief MVFR cigs/vsby along with gusty winds as well. && .MARINE... The Bermuda high pressure ridge axis is expected to remain in the region with fairly typical summertime conditions through the weekend and into next week with afternoon into evening seabreeze thunderstorms daily. No headlines are expected but winds and seas will be higher near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... A typical warm and humid summertime pattern will continue with afternoon into evening seabreeze thunderstorms daily. No fire weather concerns expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 79 93 80 / 80 50 70 40 FMY 92 78 94 78 / 80 30 70 30 GIF 95 77 95 78 / 80 50 60 20 SRQ 93 78 94 78 / 60 50 60 40 BKV 93 75 94 75 / 80 40 80 30 SPG 92 82 94 82 / 70 50 70 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ RDavis