779
FXUS62 KTBW 201156
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
756 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Expect the fairly typical summertime pattern to continue through
the weekend and next week with stacked ridging over the region from
the W Atlantic extending over the N FL Peninsula and into the N
Gulf with generally a SE flow regime for the CWA. The warm and
humid conditions will continue as well with heat index values of
102-107. SAL is also expected to intermittently move through the
region next week with minor impacts on POPs. Expect late
morning/early afternoon showers and storms along the west coast
sea breeze drifting inland and producing outflow boundaries,
then the E coast seabreeze produces late afternoon inland
collisions that will eventually push the convection back towards
the W coast in the evening that moves offshore overnight through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 754 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024
Surface winds are mostly out of the SE this morning but will
gradually shift onshore later in the day as the sea breeze spreads
inland. Scattered to numerous TSRA is expected to develop along
the sea breeze with the greatest precipitation chances expected to
occur from 19Z-00Z. This activity could result in brief IFR
restrictions this afternoon and evening before tapering off after
01Z-02Z tonight with SE winds becoming less than 5 kts overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge axis is expected to remain in the
region with fairly typical summertime conditions through the
weekend and into next week with afternoon into evening seabreeze
thunderstorms daily. No headlines are expected but winds and seas
will be higher near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A typical warm and humid summertime pattern will continue with
afternoon into evening seabreeze thunderstorms daily. No fire
weather concerns expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  93  80 /  80  50  70  40
FMY  92  78  94  78 /  80  30  70  30
GIF  95  77  95  78 /  80  50  60  20
SRQ  93  78  94  78 /  60  50  60  40
BKV  93  75  94  75 /  80  40  80  30
SPG  92  82  94  82 /  70  50  70  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis
AVIATION...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard