656
FXUS62 KTBW 150013
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
813 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Made a few adjustments to PoPs coverage to remain consistent with
latest obs and radar trends, otherwise forecast remains on track.
Fairly widespread shield of stratiform precip with embedded
convective elements remains over parts of the Nature Coast through
C FL and into parts of SWFL early this evening, with expectations
that it`ll follow typical diurnal trends and gradually over the
next few hours into the overnight period. Partly cloudy and humid
conditions with light winds expected to follow for the remainder
of the overnight period with lows in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Not much changing in the overall forecast from today through most of
next week. Ridging will be situated overhead giving us neutral
flow and very light winds across the area. This will result in
slow moving storms each day that could result in localize flooding
as showers tend to just sit over one area.

As we get into our Friday and next weekend ridging start to shift
north giving us a more south to southeast flow. This will keep focus
on our coastal areas for afternoon and evening thunderstorm
activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Lingering activity currently affecting mainly terminals outside of
FMY/RSW likely to diminish over the next couple hours with VFR
conditions returning for remainder of tonight and lasting through
Monday morning before shower and storm chances return during the
afternoon and early evening before diminishing late evening into
overnight. Light winds tonight increase out of the SE during the
morning and shift onshore during the afternoon, with perhaps a
delayed or lesser shift for FMY/RSW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Ridging overhead will keep winds out of the southeast and
generally below 10 knots through Thursday. We can expect a few
spotty showers overnight and in the early morning hours each day.
Also looking at some storms pushing off the coast each evening as
seabreeze start to weaken.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Summertime humidity and convection
will be in place through the weekend and next week with no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  92  79  93 /  70  60  40  70
FMY  76  94  77  94 /  50  60  30  70
GIF  76  95  77  96 /  60  60  10  60
SRQ  76  92  78  94 /  50  50  40  60
BKV  75  93  74  95 /  60  70  30  60
SPG  80  92  82  94 /  60  50  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close