631
FXUS62 KTBW 170732
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
332 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Currently at the surface, the subtropical ridge axis is extending
across central Florida, keeping light southeast and south winds in
place. Although the ridge will slowly drift slightly north through
the next several days, this flow pattern will not change
significantly through early next week. This pattern will feature
scattered convection over the coastal waters during the early
morning hours each day, then storms will start to develop along the
west coast sea breeze during the early afternoon, generally along
and west of Interstate 75. Thunderstorms will continue to build
inland through the rest of the afternoon, but the west coast sea
breeze will remained pinned fairly close to the coast. Convection
then gradually dissipates after sunset and the pattern repeats. The
one wrinkle in the forecast involves a pocket of relatively drier
air shifting into central and southern Florida today from the
Atlantic, limiting rain chances today and into Thursday, mainly
along and south of Interstate 4. Otherwise, temperatures will
continue to run a degree or two above normal through the next 7
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to hold through the rest of the
morning. Thunderstorms will begin to develop around the Tampa Bay
around 17-19z, and will build inland through the rest of the
afternoon. Farther south, drier air will limit rain chances over
southwest Florida this afternoon around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD,
although occasional thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out.
Rain free and VFR conditions will return by around 01-02z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

High pressure ridging into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will keep
light southeast to south flow in place, turning onshore near the
coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. Locally higher winds will
be possible in the vicinity of scattered to numerous thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

No humidity concerns. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected each of the next couple of afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  79  93 /  20  40  30  70
FMY  78  92  78  93 /  10  60  20  70
GIF  76  96  77  96 /  20  50  10  70
SRQ  77  92  79  93 /  10  40  30  60
BKV  73  94  75  94 /  20  40  20  70
SPG  81  93  82  93 /  20  40  40  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming