882
FXUS62 KTBW 171818
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
218 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The typical summertime pattern continues, with coastal showers
already popping up. Only difference today is a slot of slightly
drier air making its way over south Florida from the Atlantic. This
will inhibit the development of showers and storms, mainly for areas
south of I4. Similar to the past few days, showers will be slow
movers and could lead to heavy, isolated downpours. Frequent
lightning could also be expected during these storms. Tomorrow a
similar setup, with some showers off the coast in the early morning
hours that could move onshore, followed by shower/storm development
being pushed inland in the late afternoon hours. However, coverage
still looks to be limited by slightly drier air tomorrow as well. By
Friday, the dry air has moved away and typical widespread coverage
of showers and storms returns. With showers and storms developing
later in the afternoon, high temperatures will be a little above
average with head indices hitting the triple digits most days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Winds continue to be light and variable throughout all TAFs. Dry air
advecting from the south will lead to decreased rain chances south
of the I-4 Corridor. Normal summertime conditions expected for all
other TAFs along and north of this boundary. Showers and storms will
begin to develop off the coast and move inland towards northern TAFs
between 18/19Z. Storms should diminish around 22/23Z. Typical
summertime conditions are expected to return tomorrow for all TAFs

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Only marine concern through the period will be the development of
any showers or storms over the water that could cause locally
higher winds. otherwise, light SE flow turns onshore each
afternoon with sea breeze development.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Ample moisture keeps any fire weather concerns at bay through the
period. Showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  80  93 /  20  40  30  70
FMY  78  93  77  93 /  30  60  20  70
GIF  76  95  77  95 /  20  50  10  70
SRQ  77  93  78  93 /  10  40  30  70
BKV  73  95  75  95 /  20  40  20  70
SPG  81  94  82  93 /  20  40  30  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
Aviation...Kreitzer
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana