365
FXUS62 KTBW 190521
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
121 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A light ESE flow is in place, with sea breeze circulations
continuing to drive thunderstorm activity each day. The most likely
window for coastal TAF sites to see on-station impacts ranges from
17Z to 20Z as the west coast sea breeze first begins to form and
thunderstorms develop along the boundary near the coast. During
this time-frame, there is a 60% to 70% chance for thunderstorms to
produce gusty winds and a short window for MVFR to IFR at most
coastal terminals. However, storms may linger in the vicinity
through much of the afternoon and into the evening as the east
coast sea breeze pushes west. This could yield another short
window for on- station impacts in the 22Z to 0Z time-frame, but
confidence is only sitting around 30% to 40% for the later time.
After 0Z, thunderstorms should wind down and a light ESE or even
calm flow will return. A very similar pattern will repeat for the
next several days with a static atmosphere in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  93  79 /  60  40  70  40
FMY  93  77  94  77 /  60  30  70  20
GIF  95  76  96  76 /  70  20  70  20
SRQ  93  77  93  77 /  60  40  70  40
BKV  94  74  95  74 /  70  30  70  40
SPG  93  81  93  81 /  60  40  70  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery