586
FXUS62 KTBW 070725
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
325 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

High pressure at the surface and aloft remain over the area this
morning with another afternoon of heat advisory conditions
expected along with showers and storms developing along the W FL
sea breeze during the afternoon and pushing inland through the
evening. Lingering drier air aloft over the eastern half of the
peninsula may limit overall convective development this afternoon
therefore have capped today`s PoPs at 60 percent, which may be
generous, particularly in areas further away from the coast.
Surface ridge axis shifts south across the area early in the week
with flow gradually shifting from southerly today to southwesterly
through much of the work week before perhaps returning to more
easterly late week into next weekend. An upper-low currently over
the W Atlantic will drift W-SW across the state early to mid week,
which coupled with gradually increasing moisture over the state
will support chances for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, with highest chances coastal during the morning
before shifting inland during the afternoon and evening given the
expected southwesterly flow, then shifting to highest coastal
chances in the PM hours into next weekend as flow shifts more
easterly. Afternoon highs today in the lower to mid 90s with heat
indices in the 108-111 range for the Heat Advisory, however
guidance suggests a slight moderation in temps early to mid week
with highs in the lower 90s for most of the area, perhaps offering
at least a short-lived break from the recent daily heat advisory
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Overnight VFR continues into the morning before afternoon
showers/storms develop impacting coastal terminals with potential
for cig/vsby restrictions for a few hours before pushing inland
and east of terminals into the evening. Light/variable winds
increase out of the S during the morning then turn onshore during
the afternoon as the sea breeze advances inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

High pressure to remain over the waters through the week with no
headlines expected. Showers and storms will be primary hazard with
locally winds and seas in/near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

No fire weather concerns expected through the week with abundant
moisture in place keeping relative humidities comfortably above
critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  80  91  80 /  60  40  50  20
FMY  93  79  92  78 /  60  40  50  10
GIF  96  77  94  77 /  60  40  60  10
SRQ  92  79  91  79 /  60  40  50  20
BKV  94  75  93  76 /  60  40  60  20
SPG  92  82  91  83 /  60  40  50  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Oglesby