650
FXUS62 KTBW 071823
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
223 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Weak upper ridge remains centered over the state into Monday
trapped between the 2 well defined upper lows, one associated
with Beryl in the W Gulf and the upper low in the W Atlantic. Weak
high pressure at the surface will keep the gradient weak with
another day of hot and humid conditions into Monday along with
scattered afternoon showers and storms developing along the W FL
sea breeze during the afternoon and pushing inland through the
evening.

The pattern changes Tuesday through mid-week as the remnants of
Beryl get picked up by the northern stream upper longwave trough
moving well N of the region while the W Atlantic system slowly
moves from the N Bahamas over the FL Peninsula. The surface high
pressure ridge axis also shifts Sward with LL flow veering S-SW
producing higher PoPs in coastal areas during the morning before
shifting inland during the afternoon and evening.

The Bermuda high is then expected to move back Nward for a more
typical SE flow summertime rainfall pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
SCT SHRA/TSRA this afternoon on the weak seabreeze with brief and
LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs possible thru 01Z. VRF conditions and light
winds return areawide aft 02Z tonight. Expect more typical summertime
convection Monday afternoon as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure is expected to remain over the E Gulf waters
with generally light winds and seas 2 ft or less through the week
with no headlines expected. Main concern will be thunderstorms
producing locally gusty winds, higher seas, and lightning for
mariners.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns expected with the warm and humid summertime
conditions continuing with light winds and afternoon seabreezes.
The light flow will again keep dispersion index values fairly low.
Expect daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms with gusty erratic
winds and dangerous lightning possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  92  80  90 /  40  70  30  70
FMY  79  93  79  92 /  50  50  10  50
GIF  78  95  77  91 /  50  70  20  70
SRQ  79  92  80  91 /  40  60  30  50
BKV  76  94  76  90 /  40  70  40  70
SPG  83  92  83  91 /  40  70  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RDavis