848
FXUS62 KTBW 041800
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A weak frontal boundary between the Bahamas and the Carolinas
continues to wash out over the next 24 hours. Weak high pressure
ridges through the center of the state to another high pressure
center over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This is keeping a very
light wind flow over the Florida peninsula with sea breeze driven
showers and storms prevailing each day through the end of the week
and into the weekend. Abundant moisture with PWAT values between
1.8 - 2.3 inches will persist through the forecast period. Any
showers and storms that do develop will be slow moving and may
cause some localized flooding. Nocturnal land breeze showers and
storms can also be expected over the eastern gulf waters during
the early morning hours. Daytime highs will top out in the low to
mid 90`s with heat indices reaching 105-112 degrees. This has
warranted the issuance of a Heat Advisory valid from 11 am through
6 pm this evening. The hot and humid conditions will continue
over the next few days with daily Heat Advisories likely needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots will prevail outside of
thunderstorms. Will hold VCTS to cover thunderstorms today from 18Z
through 01Z for all terminals. Storms weaken after 01Z with rain-
free conditions and light winds 5 knots or less expected
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure ridging across central Florida and into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico is producing a light wind flow with winds 10 knots or
less and seas 2 feet or less through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will produce onshore
winds each day. Scattered showers and isolated storms can be
expected daily through the week and into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A typical summertime pattern continues over the area with abundant
moisture, hot temperatures and light winds. Scattered showers and
isolated storms expected each day through the end of the week and
into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  80  93 /  40  50  20  60
FMY  79  93  78  93 /  50  50  20  60
GIF  76  94  76  95 /  50  60  10  60
SRQ  78  94  78  93 /  50  50  20  60
BKV  75  94  75  94 /  40  50  20  60
SPG  83  93  83  93 /  40  50  20  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...RDavis