288
FXUS62 KTBW 050634
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
234 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
Strong U/L subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will extend
across the Florida peninsula through the period. At the surface,
weak high pressure over the forecast area will create light
boundary layer flow today. This will promote sea breeze boundaries
to slowly push inland through the day with scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing by the early afternoon hours along the
coastal counties, with highest pops inland as the boundaries move
over the interior and likely collide with increasing areal
coverage of thunderstorms during the late afternoon/evening
hours...with activity ending around midnight. Slow moving storms
will create the potential for locally heavy rain and flooding of
low lying flood prone areas.  Also, the weak boundary layer flow
and strong high pressure aloft will create favorable conditions
for temperatures to climb several degrees above climatic normals
today. Combined with dew points in the upper 70s to around 80,
this will cause heat indices to climb to 108-110 degrees this
afternoon. A heat advisory has been issued for all counties of
west central and southwest Florida due to the high apparent
temperatures.

Slight increase in easterly flow on Saturday will create area for
highest pops over the coastal counties during the late/afternoon
evening as enhanced convergence along the west coast sea breeze
boundary will be the focus for convection. Boundary layer flow
will remain weak on Sunday but may shift more out of the south,
which will keep pops relatively uniform across west central and
southwest Florida...with flow south to southwest Monday and
Tuesday. Slightly drier air aloft may also work it`s way over
central and southern areas...which will promote highest pops
across the nature coast early next week. A weak boundary will
sink over the southeast U.S. by the middle of the next week, with
relatively high pops persisting across the nature coast...with
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms
central/south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the early morning hours.
Daytime heating on Friday will generate CU to develop by late
morning with LCL MVFR CIGs 020-030 developing. Bases will
climb above 030 by early afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs
and VFR VSBYs...which may impact terminals for an hour or two,
with the best chance at LAL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with
winds below cautionary levels each day. Main hazard will be
isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity with the greatest
coverage during the evening and overnight hours. Storms may cause
locally gusty winds and rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  93  80 /  50  20  60  30
FMY  94  78  93  79 /  50  20  70  30
GIF  95  76  95  77 /  60  10  60  10
SRQ  94  77  92  79 /  50  20  60  30
BKV  94  75  94  76 /  50  20  60  30
SPG  94  82  93  83 /  50  20  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt