Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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931 FXUS62 KTAE 080036 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 836 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 832 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Temperatures were brought in line with observations this evening as evening thunderstorms practically covered the entire region today. With shower and thunderstorm activity waining, PoPs were also adjusted lower through the overnight hours as much of the region has been worked over, and a low level CAP has developed. With temperatures and PoP both adjusted, so was QPF, dewpoint temperatures, RH, and apparent temperatures through the next 12 hours to reflect the changes. Overall, a quiet night is expected as much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished this evening. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Deep layer moisture remains over the area through the near term along with some ridging aloft. This will lead to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon hours with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall possible. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm in the 90s with heat index values in the 105 to 110 degree range. A heat advisory will most likely be needed over at least some of the area again tomorrow, but opting to let the mid shift refine the details once more before issuing. Lows are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The remnants of Beryl will swing into the Mid-South on Tuesday with an upper-level low moving west across the northern Bahamas toward the east coast of Florida and an old boundary draped across the Southeast. This coupled with high PWATs of 2 to 2.3 inches will lead to very high rain chances Tuesday afternoon across the area. Rain chances are around 70 to 80 percent Tuesday afternoon. This level of moisture could lead to some locally heavy downpours and nuisance type flooding should storms move slowly or train. Otherwise, it will remain hot and muggy with highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat index values will be around 104-109. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The remnants of Beryl get swept away and absorbed by a trough over the Great Lakes. This will send a weak cold front through the area Wednesday, but it may stall just south of our area. Upper-level ridging noses its way into our area, and PWATs may come down slightly -- more like 1.7 to 1.9 inches. Thus, rain chances will still remain elevated on Wednesday (around 60 to 70 percent) before dropping on Thursday in the wake of the frontal passage. Rain chances will increase again heading into the weekend as moisture increases yet again. Meanwhile, temperatures will be on the rise as upper-level ridging builds back, but we`ll have some "drier" air in its wake. Dew points will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s as opposed to mid 70s to lower 80s. This will finally bring a short-lived reprieve to our daily Heat Advisories with heat index values closer to 100 to 106. However, actual temperatures will still be in the middle to upper 90s with lows in the 70s. With the increase in moisture over the weekend, it looks like we could be in for a return to Heat Advisory conditions next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 753 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions prevail through tonight for most TAF sites, the only exceptions could be periods of MVFR/IFR and maybe LIFR conditions if low stratus and fog develop overnight at DHN/ABY/VLD. Confidence is low in these scenarios but have indicated some of these restrictions at those TAF sites. Any restrictions that develop should lift by 14/15z Monday. Scattered showers and storms will develop again tomorrow with the highest confidence for impacts at VLD/TLH beginning around 19 or 20z. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Generally light west to southwest winds are expected over the next several days with seas around 1 to 3 feet. Long period swells will diminish over the next day or so as Beryl moves inland over southeast Texas. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each night and morning.&& && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with a moist airmass in place and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Heat index values will be high each afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 No significant hydro concerns are anticipated. Daily showers and storms will have plenty of moisture to work with and could produce locally heavy downpours in a short period of time. This could lead to daily chances for nuisance flooding or perhaps flash flooding in isolated cases. But widespread flood concerns are not expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 95 78 92 / 10 60 30 80 Panama City 79 91 81 90 / 10 50 30 80 Dothan 75 95 76 93 / 20 40 20 70 Albany 76 93 77 94 / 30 60 30 70 Valdosta 77 95 77 93 / 30 60 30 80 Cross City 78 94 78 91 / 10 50 30 80 Apalachicola 79 89 81 89 / 10 40 30 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Young