243
FXUS62 KTAE 200811
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
411 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Wash, rinse, repeat. No major changes to the upper pattern for this
period. Upper troughing remains from the northeast US southwest to
the southern Plains and the subtropical ridge off the east coast. A
weak frontal boundary is positioned to the northwest of the forecast
area and will slowly retreat westward today. Deep tropical moisture
remains in place with PWATs north of 2 inches. Consensus of the CAMs
models show convection developing offshore over the next few hours
towards dawn then working inland this morning, first along the
panhandle coast then spreading southeast into Apalachee Bay then
working northeast and east through the day. Have likely rain chances
spreading from southwest to northeast with a healthy scattered to
numerous coverage by the afternoon. Convection should follow the
diurnal trend with decreasing coverage into the evening then waning
overnight. 1-2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts can be
expected this period, favoring the southern half of the CWA and
especially in coastal sections. Heavy downpours and localized
nuisance style flooding could occur underneath slow moving and
training of storms. WPC outlooked much of the area today in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Highs today will reach the
upper 80s to low 90s with lows tonight falling into the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

There isn`t much change from the last week throughout the short
term. Diurnally forced storms within a deeply moist atmospheric
column persists. Any storm could lead to localized flash flooding
as heavy downpours are the primary hazard.

Expect daytime highs in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Throughout the long term the ridge to our east begins to gradually
push westward. This will reduce PoPs slightly as the moisture axis
of higher PWATs also shifts to our west. With the surface flow
remaining southerly, the sea breeze will still act as a diurnal forcing
mechanism, initiating showers and storms every morning and
afternoon. Late in the work week a tropical wave riding along the
southern periphery of the ridge looks to cross the FL Peninsula
throughout the weekend. This would lead to higher PoP chances
given the mid-level support. This tropical wave is currently
expected to remain broad as it moves westward.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A few spotty SHRA continue moving east from southeast Alabama but
should wind down in the next few hours. Mainly VFR overnight with
the exception of ABY which may experience MVFR cigs around dawn.
Trends in CAMs suggest convection gets going in the Gulf waters
early this morning moving ashore towards dawn then pushing inland
while additional development through the day across inland areas.
Have VCTS all sites today with elevated rain chances continue.
Where heavier SHRA/TSRA occurs, expect brief stints to MVFR but
then improving once convection passes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Outside of daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, generally
pleasant boating conditions prevail. Southerly winds at around 10
knots or less continue with seas of 1 to 2 feet into at least mid
next week. Any thunderstorms will be capable of localized gusty
winds, higher waves, frequent lightning, and possible waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Low fire weather concerns are anticipated through the weekend and
into next week with wetter than normal conditions forecast and
relative humidities remaining high through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Diurnal pop-up thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding
concerns where slow moving storms could produce several inches of
rainfall. Otherwise, there are currently no river flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  74  90  74 /  70  30  90  20
Panama City   88  78  89  78 /  70  60  80  40
Dothan        88  73  89  72 /  70  50  90  40
Albany        88  72  90  72 /  70  30  80  30
Valdosta      92  74  93  73 /  70  30  80  30
Cross City    92  75  93  75 /  70  30  80  20
Apalachicola  88  80  89  79 /  70  60  80  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Oliver