Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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227 FXUS62 KTAE 081442 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1042 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1023 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Tweaks were made mostly to today`s rain chances. For this morning, PoPs were trimmed to primarily account for isolated maritime convection. A blend of the latest NBM was used with the inherited afternoon forecast to slightly increased inland PoPs. Convective initiation is still expected along the seabreeze zone, focusing activity across the I-10 corridor/FL Big Bend, then spreading inland thereafter. The 12Z HRRR depicts this evolution. The main concerns are continued hazardous heat and pockets of heavy rain from thunderstorms thanks to an unstable/tropical airmass in place amidst weak steering flow. Balloon data from the nearby 12Z KJAX sounding has 2.35" Precipitable Water values, SB/MUCAPE around 2600 J/kg, and 700 J/kg of DCAPE fostered by a small pocket of mid-level dry air. As such, instances of nuisance and/or flash flooding are possible in addition to strong/gusty winds. A Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide as feels-like temperatures should sore healthily above triple digits prior to convective cool-off. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 There was little change to the previous forecast for today. Deep layer moisture remains over the area through the near term along with some ridging aloft. Precipitable water values at or above 2 inches are expected again for most of the area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along leftover mesoscale surface boundaries and the sea breeze. Weak steering flow coupled with the tropical environment will lead to pockets of locally heavy rain with isolated flash flooding possible. Convection will gradually diminish after sunset but may linger a few hours into the night. Another hot afternoon is expected with peak heat index values generally between 106-112. Thus, a heat advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area once again. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 On Tuesday, the remnants of Beryl will trek northeast as an upper trough swings down to the Southeast with Beryl phasing in with the mean flow. The upper trough / remnants of Beryl are expected to miss out region, though an upper low will move in from the Atlantic bringing ample moisture with it. PWATs Tuesday afternoon appear to reach 2-2.3" areawide, perhaps as high as 2.5". As such, a large swath of 70% PoPs are in the forecast as numerous afternoon thunderstorms appear possible. With PWATs as high as the aforementioned range, some locally heavy downpours appear possible, with some localized flooding possible as well, especially if the storms slow down and/or train over urban areas. Heat indices on Tuesday will flirt with heat advisory criteria, particularly within our FL counties, though some uncertainty as to when storms may form remains. If storms form earlier, then heat indices greater than 108 may not be realized. As the upper trough moves through, a "cold front" will move across the region which will serve to mix out some of the moisture across the area, particularly across our SE AL counties and portions of our SW GA counties. However, PWATs still appear high (2-2.3") across our FL counties which is represented by the higher PoPs (50-70%). This may also hinder heat indices from reaching as high as they have been as of late across our AL and GA counties. Highs will generally remain in the mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 As the aforementioned cold front passes through, PWATs will drop across the region to less than 2", with PoPs dropping across the area as a result. This will last through Friday with PoPs expected to increase once again as more moisture begins to enter the area. Temperatures, however, will feel somewhat better following the passage of this cold front. Dewpoints across our FL counties will generally remain in the low to mid 70s, though upper 60s dewpoints appear possible across our SE AL and SW GA counties which would provide some relief from the mugginess as of late. It will still feel hot across the region, with mid to upper 90s expected each day, though the lower dewpoints might make it feel somewhat "bearable". && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Scattered pockets of low ceilings and fog just north of ABY this morning will dissipate quickly after sunrise with VFR conditions prevailing. For this afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 1023 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting east to SE winds 5-10 kts with 1-3-ft seas and a dominant period of 5 seconds late this morning. Beryl made landfall along the Central TX Gulf Coast at 4AM CDT/5AM EDT. The main impact will be continued long-period southerly swells. From CWF Synopsis...Winds will remain generally light our of the west southwest, increasing somewhat Tuesday through Wednesday before becoming light once again. Seas will remain 2 to 4 feet as Beryl moves further inland over Eastern Texas with long-period southerly swells lingering into mid-week. Conditions diminish thereafter. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each evening through the morning hours. The latter may produce waterspouts at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with a moist airmass in place and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Heat index values will be high each afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Generally isolated and scattered thunderstorms are expected each day as a moist unstable airmass remains situated over the region. There are no immediate hydrological concerns, though some of these storms may possess locally heavy rainfall which could produce localized flash flooding, particularly over urban areas. There are also no riverine concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 77 92 77 / 70 20 70 20 Panama City 91 80 90 80 / 50 20 70 40 Dothan 94 76 93 76 / 60 20 70 10 Albany 94 76 94 77 / 60 30 70 10 Valdosta 95 76 93 76 / 70 30 70 20 Cross City 94 77 90 77 / 60 20 70 40 Apalachicola 89 81 89 80 / 40 30 70 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134. High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...IG3 NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Worster/IG3 FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Worster