956
FXUS62 KTAE 151852
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
252 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...


.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

We`ll remain on the western periphery of the Bermuda high on
Tuesday. Moisture will continue to pump in from the southwest, while
showers and thunderstorms generally fire up along the seabreeze.
Highs for Tuesday remain toasty in the mid 90s; however, the
question remains how much will the seabreeze storms and cloud cover
mess with the forecast in terms of heat index. Should these form
early enough, we may either briefly or never realize heat index
values of 105 to 112 in the western FL Panhandle, portions of SE AL,
the first tier of our southern most counties in GA (Seminole to
Lowndes), and the western FL Big Bend. Confidence is too low at this
time to hoist a Heat Advisory at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Mid and upper level troughing is expected to dig southward through
the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday, which will start to
lower 500 mb heights across the eastern Conus. This will similarly
cause the Bermuda ridge to retreat eastward into the central
Atlantic during this time. While much of the upper level forcing
for ascent will be well to the north of the region, a frontal
boundary associated with the upper level trough will lead to
shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday night primarily in SE
Alabama and SW Georgia. With PWATs near 1.8-2 inches areawide,
afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms will be likely across all
Florida zones; however, the frontal boundary will likely bring a
weakening line of showers and thunderstorms to SE Alabama and SW
Georgia late Wednesday night. Current forecast DCAPE values are
generally expected to be between 600-800 J/Kg, which is not
particularly high enough to cause severe downbursts; however,
strong winds will still be possible with the strongest storms that
develop across the region Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday
will be their warmest, before an overall cooling trend starts,
with highs peaking in the mid 90s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The aforementioned mid and upper level trough will continue to
progress eastward through the end of the work week before being
re-enforced on Saturday and Sunday as an additional trough digs
south into the great lakes Saturday. Through the middle to later
half of the work week, the initial mid and upper level trough that
digs into the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday remains
fairly quasi-stationary, slightly lower 500 mb heights look to
remain in place across the Deep South. This will keep high
temperatures overall near seasonable levels in the low to mid
90s. This will similarly be in conjunction with increased rain
chances, as the Bermuda ridge and surface high pressure system
continually advect high PWATs from the deep tropics into the
southeast through the extended. These increased PWATs will lead to
increased shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the
work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Showers and thunderstorms developed along the seabreeze as
expected this afternoon, with storms currently arriving in the
western FL Big Bend. To the north, in SW GA, the airmass is moist
and unstable, with a weaker signal of southwest winds being
observed. Added in some TEMPOs for -TSRA but given observations
were not showing MVFR status in the past, opted to only hint at
the possibility of lower cig and vis with it. This may need to be
adjusted as storms start to develop or move over nearby sites.
Regarding timing, adjusted KECP to have VCTS end earlier and start
the next round of sea breeze storms tomorrow morning. Elsewhere,
confidence is lower in what might happen tonight. Ended up using a
combination of the NAMNEST and HRRR for timing, though both ended
up having different end time solutions. There`s a chance some
storms could linger past sunset, but confidence was too low to
adjust to that forecast.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024


Favorable marine conditions continue through the work week and
into the weekend with overall light southwesterly winds around
5-10 knots expected. Seas will generally run less than 2 feet.
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast,
especially in the early morning hours, the next several days.
These showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce
waterspouts, and boaters should remain vigilant while out on the
water as conditions can rapidly deteriorate in and around these
thunderstorms.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Outside of the possibility for elevated to high dispersions on
Thursday, there are no fire weather concerns. Moisture will continue
to increase each day, with showers and thunderstorms being possible
each day. The highest chances will be over the FL counties and along
the sea breeze, though chances increase inland at the end of the
work week.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

More moisture works back into the region this week, increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Localized street and nuisance flooding may be possible within any
slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as is typical in the
summer. No riverine flooding is expected in the next 7 to 10 days.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  94  76  95 /  20  70  10  70
Panama City   80  91  80  91 /  30  70  20  60
Dothan        75  95  75  95 /  30  70  10  70
Albany        76  94  75  95 /  30  60  20  60
Valdosta      76  95  75  96 /  30  60  20  60
Cross City    76  94  75  94 /  20  60  20  50
Apalachicola  80  89  79  90 /  30  70  20  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Reese