556
FXUS62 KTAE 201939
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
339 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Similar to the last few days, convection got an early start across
the area and showers and storms are now becoming widespread with
continued afternoon heating. Like yesterday, activity will continue
to push inland with further development of storms to north and east
parts of the forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon.
Severe weather is not expected, with only an occasional strong wind
gusts possible in the strongest storms today. Main concerns will
revolve around a risk for localized flooding as high rainfall rates
accompany the storms. Some locations along the coast saw a quick 3
to 4 inches of rain in the span of 60 to 90 minutes today and while
the greater flood threat will be along the coast, inland areas still
could see these types of rainfall amounts in localized areas if
storms train across an area.

Convection will gradually wind down early this evening and while
isolated showers/storms could continue in some locations this
evening, most of the evening and early part of the overnight hours
should be quiet. Like today, activity will then again begin to
increase along our coastal counties and nearshore waters in the pre-
dawn and morning hours. While we`re sounding like a broken record,
conditions look to repeat themselves again on Sunday as storms
develop along/near the coast and progress inland through the late
morning and early afternoon hours. With the increased activity high
temperatures will remain around normal and in the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The atmospheric tug-of-war between a stubborn positively tilted
upper trough to our NW and subtropical West Atlantic ridge continues
into early next week. We remain caught in between these two
features, which should keep the weather wet/unsettled/muggy until
the pattern relents. The forecast reflects these expectations by
maintaining elevated rain chances and low-to-mid 90s/70s for
highs/lows. Greatest potential for rainfall is the NW portion of the
Tri-State closer to the trough with its attendant surface front.
Heat indices look to range from about 101-109 degrees, the latter of
which is at or near advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The subtropical ridge noses westward in response to its upstream
counterpart showing some weakening early to mid-week. This slight
synoptic shift may reduce convective coverage from widespread to
scattered in nature, but trends still appear fairly wet. By late
week, a reinforcing shortwave/cutoff low rounding through the
Great Lakes causes the ridge to modestly retreat eastward, thus
reverting us to the annoyingly stubborn "sandwich" pattern of
moist deep-layer SW flow. As a result, mostly elevated rain
chances remain in the forecast. By next weekend, it seems that
ridging becomes much better established across the Eastern US, so
expect a return to more of a typical summertime setup of diurnal
seabreeze-driven thunderstorms and hotter daytime temperatures in
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period but occasional periods
of MVFR/IFR restrictions are possible in any heavy showers/storms
that affect area TAF sites. Widespread storm activity should
continue through the late afternoon hours before activity slowly
diminishes into the evening. Only isolated showers/storms possible
overnight with activity transitioning to the coastal zones by the
pre-dawn hours of Sunday with mainly ECP at risk for storms before
daybreak.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Outside of daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, generally
pleasant boating conditions prevail. Southerly winds at around 10
knots or less continue with seas of 1 to 2 feet into at least mid
next week. Any thunderstorms will be capable of localized gusty
winds, higher waves, frequent lightning, and possible waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

No fire weather concerns outside daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms as the area will be under a wet and moist pattern
through the early part of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Instances of localized nuisance/flash flooding remain possible over
the next few days as long as the moist environment persists for
continued daily heavy-rain-making thunderstorms. The most vulnerable
locations are urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage spots or places
reeling from antecedent wet conditions. The axis of highest
precipitation does appear to shift west to NW heading into early
next week, but overall trends still appear wet. Widespread 1-2+
inches are forecast (isolated higher). In terms of rivers, there are
no concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  75  91  74 /  90  20  70  30
Panama City   88  78  89  76 /  90  50  60  30
Dothan        85  73  89  73 /  80  30  80  30
Albany        87  73  89  74 /  90  40  70  30
Valdosta      90  74  92  75 /  80  30  60  40
Cross City    90  75  93  75 /  70  20  40  10
Apalachicola  87  79  88  77 /  90  30  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...IG3