Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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872 FXUS62 KTAE 052319 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 719 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 While an upper level trough centered across the upper Mississippi valley will remain just far enough removed from the region that forcing for ascent will be minimal for robust shower and thunderstorm activity. While forcing for ascent will be minimal, PWATs will generally be in the 2.0-2.5 inch range across the region. PWATs this high will lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm convection across the entire region on Saturday. Any thunderstorms that do develop will likely become outflow dominant through the late afternoon and evening hours. While storms are not expected to be severe, a few strong wind gusts from some of the more robust storms are expected with DCAPE values in the 800-1000 J/Kg range. With PWATs in this 2-2.5 inch range, there will be the threat for localized flash flooding, especially in poor drainage and urban environments with any slow moving, back building, or training thunderstorms. Outside of the rain potential, temperatures look to be hot once again, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s areawide. This combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will lead to widespread 108-112 degree heat index values tomorrow. Given this threat, another areawide Heat Advisory has been issued for all of our Florida, Georgia, and Alabama zones. Heat sensitive folks should take precautions when working outdoors on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Shower and thunderstorms chances remain elevated through the weekend thanks to a moist airmass in place. Temperatures each night only drop into the middle 70s before rebounding into the lower to middle 90s for highs Sunday afternoon. Heat indices are forecast to remain in and around Heat Advisory criteria, or around 108 degrees, Sunday afternoon. A resilient H5 ridge will remain overhead despite a trough moving through the Great Lakes. Usually being under the center of an H5 ridge means suppressed shower and thunderstorm chances. However, precipitable water values (PWATs) over 2" combined with a weakening cold front and daytime heating will allow showers and storms to develop during the day Sunday. Any showers and storms should wane around sunset Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Overall, not much change is expected in the day-to-day forecast next week. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain highest in the afternoons with daytime highs in the lower to middle 90s with lows in the middle to upper 70s. A stubborn H5 ridge remains overhead most of next week as a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) attempts to move in from the Atlantic later in the forecast period. This could help slightly suppress shower and thunderstorm development ahead of it while enhancing rain chances as it moves west of the region. Either way, PWATs over 2" remain in place and should lead to showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed during the work week as dew points remain elevated. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Thunderstorms near TLH will dissipate early in the period. A few storms cannot be ruled out around DHN through 02Z. Otherwise, conditions will be VFR overnight and through the morning with the exception of a brief period of MVFR visibility at VLD around sunrise. Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and these are indicated at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A few showers and storms are possible the next few days, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. Westerly to southwesterly winds are generally expected to prevail with a slight uptick in winds by early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. Hurricane Beryl will bring a long period swell later this afternoon and continue into the weekend before subsiding next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 With an extremely moist airmass continuing to remain in place over the region, there will be 50-70% PoP chances the next couple of days areawide. Transport winds look to remain out of the south/southwest through the weekend at around 5-10 mph. While temperatures will be hot in the mid to upper 90s, mixing heights look to top out at around 4500-5000 ft. With the moist airmass in place; however, there are no immediate fire weather concerns through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into next week thanks to a moist summer environment in place. While widespread heavy rainfall is not currently expected, localized pockets of heavy rain in a short period of time could produced localized flash flooding, especially in urban and/or poor drainage areas and in areas that have already seen heavy rain during the past few days. No riverine flooding is anticipated the next 7 to 10 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 95 77 94 / 30 60 20 60 Panama City 79 91 80 91 / 20 50 20 50 Dothan 76 95 76 94 / 30 60 30 60 Albany 76 95 76 92 / 30 60 30 60 Valdosta 77 95 76 94 / 40 60 30 60 Cross City 76 95 77 93 / 20 50 20 60 Apalachicola 79 90 80 89 / 10 40 20 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134. Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127- 128-134. High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Wool MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Reese