200
FXUS62 KTAE 180122
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
922 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Lowered temps several degrees within the rain-cooled air over
portions of SE AL and SW GA, but no changes to overnight low
temps.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Mid and upper level troughing centered over the Great Lakes region
today, is expected to slowly propagate eastward towards the
northeast on Thursday. As this happens, a frontal boundary is
expected to push south into north/central Alabama and Georgia by the
late evening hours. Initially through the morning hours, expect an
additional round of isolated to scattered convection in the NE Gulf
waters to develop off the land breeze before pushing inland to
coastal Florida zones by the 9am-1pm EDT time frame. This will
likely keep high temperatures capped once again in the low 90s
across all Florida zones as cloud cover is expected to quickly
develop from storm outflow. This convection is expected to slowly
push inland through the afternoon and evening hours on stronger
storms outflow boundaries. Convection that develops along the
aforementioned frontal boundary will likely develop in north
central Alabama and Georgia, and push south along outflow
boundaries through the evening and early overnight hours. This may
collide with northward moving convection from the seabreeze
during that time window, and could potentially lead to some
flooding concerns in SE Alabama and SW Georgia.

With PWATs generally sitting around 2 inches, expect shower and
thunderstorm coverage to be widespread throughout the region.
Some storms may also be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall,
with localized flash flooding in poor drainage and urban
environments possible. A strong wind gust or two can`t be ruled
out with the strongest convective towers that develop. Highs will
likely be capped by convection and cloud cover throughout the day
in the low 90s. A few areas that remain clear, and don`t see a
shower or thunderstorm until later in the evening could see high
temperatures reach the mid 90s. Lows tonight will generally fall
into the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Deep upper level troughing will stretch across the Mississippi
River, nudging the sub tropical ridge over the Atlantic to the
east. At the surface, a front stalls out to our north increasing
the chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Moisture remains high with PWATs around 1.8-2.5", with heavy rain
and localized flooding being possible in slow moving or training
storms. In terms of temperatures, highs should be around the low
to mid 90s for Friday. Though there`s a chance temps could be a
few degrees lower depending on cloud cover and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

No major changes to the forecast as ensemble guidance shows the
Atlantic ridge building back over the southeast, pushing the
trough to our north. This will slowly push the front from Friday
even more northwards over the weekend, which could lower
precipitation chances a bit. Come early next week, tropical
moisture from the Atlantic surges westward, which will lead to
increased chances for showers and storms again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Lingering SHRA/TSRA this evening, mostly in the vicinity of KABY
and KVLD. Conditions will continue to improve to VFR outside of
TSRA/SHRA influence. Another round of active weather tomorrow,
starting early near KECP and spreading inland to the other TAF
sites through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 920 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Tranquil marine conditions will continue the rest of the week.
Gentle south or southwesterly winds are expected thru Saturday
before turning more southeasterly early next week. Seas will
generally run less than 2 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the early morning hours each day.
Suddenly higher winds, frequent lightning, waterspouts, and
increased seas are possible in the vicinity of any storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Another wet few days are on top for the region, with elevated PoPs
forecast areawide. Other than frequent lightning and erratic wind
changes in the vicinity of thunderstorms, there are currently no
fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Wetter weather will prevail over much of the forecast period. The
latest WPC guidance has come down a skosh, to about 1.5-3.0 inches
of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. There is marginal
risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday for most
the area excluding the eastern FL Big Bend counties and again on
Friday for all of southeast AL, southwest GA, and the western FL
Panhandle counties. Localized nuisance flooding in poor drainage
areas will be possible where storms are slow moving or train over
an area for an extended period of time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  75  92  75 /  70  20  80  20
Panama City   91  79  90  78 /  60  30  80  50
Dothan        94  74  94  73 /  60  20  80  40
Albany        94  74  94  73 /  40  30  70  40
Valdosta      93  75  95  75 /  50  50  60  20
Cross City    90  75  94  75 /  80  30  70  20
Apalachicola  89  79  89  80 /  80  40  80  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...KR/LF
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...KR