586
FXUS62 KTAE 181744
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
144 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Radar was a bit different than how models initialized last night
with showers and storms developing a bit more to the north and
west. Tried to adjust the PoP grids for this morning to reflect
that, but even then some of the 12Z guidance was off so opted to
blend the old forecast with some of the new NBM guidance. Also
trended some of the high temperatures a few degrees lower,
especially over SW GA, SE AL, and the western FL panhandle.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Continued troughiness to the north and west will allow for
shortwaves to ride over the ridge currently over the FL Peninsula
and the western Atlantic. This will again lead to forcing for ascent
today, and when coupled with the high moisture content (PWATs around
2 - 2.5 inches) given the established southerly flow, we`ll again
have elevated chances for precip today. Showers and storms will
begin this morning across the FL Panhandle and offshore waters and
will then gradually move inland throughout the day. Forcing will be
provided through the sea breeze and by mid-level perturbations.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms to our west are a few hours ahead
of when high-res guidance had them initiating. We`ll have to see if
this early start and it`s associated cloud cover leads to reduced
rain chances throughout the day for inland areas. Nonetheless,
activity is expected to be diurnally forced, thus winding down
around sunset.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight
lows generally in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Broad upper level troughing will extend from southeastern Canada
southwestward into the western Gulf and will serve as the weakness
between an upper high over the four corners and the Bermuda ridge
to our east. To begin Friday, a weak frontal boundary will stretch
across our western zones then move back north during the day while
continuing to weaken. Will want to keep an eye on the location of
the front Friday afternoon for heavier rain locations which may
favor southeast Alabama. Otherwise, PWATs continue in the 1.8-2.5
range with widespread 60-80% rain chances each day. Localized
pockets of flooding could occur in areas of slow moving or
training of storms. Highs both days will be in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Troughing in the southeast US weakens and pushes back
northwestward as the Atlantic ridge builds back westward into the
area beginning Sunday. Rain chances are slightly less Sunday and
Monday but not by much. There is some low to mid level drier air
on cross sections through our area which may lessen coverage and
thus slightly lower rain chances. A tropical wave and increase in
moisture arrives Tuesday and Wednesday with a return to a more
widespread coverage of convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A scattered showers and thunderstorms are being observed over the
eastern half of the service area, west of TLH and ABY. Behind it,
some storms are forming to the southwest over the Gulf. Confidence
is particularly low with any additional development behind this
line though due to models not initializing well. Added some VCTS
into KECP, KABY, and KTLH for the rest of the afternoon, but there
is a chance it could stay dry. Lower vis and cig are possible
with storms, otherwise VFR conditions prevail. Tomorrow will bring
renewed chances for showers and storms. Added vcts to TLH and ECP
after 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Favorable marine conditions will continue through early next week.
Light to occasionally moderate south to southwesterly winds are
expected thru this weekend before turning more southeasterly early
next week. Seas will generally run less than 2 feet. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early morning
hours each day. Suddenly higher winds, frequent lightning,
waterspouts, and increased seas are possible in the vicinity of
any storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Morning and afternoon showers and thunderstorms are once
again on tap for today and tomorrow. Other than erratic
directional wind changes around thunderstorms, there are currently
no fire weather concerns. Fair to good dispersions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Unsettled weather will continue over the next week with generally
1.5-3 inches of rainfall in our area with locally higher amounts,
with the heavier side of that range favoring our western
counties. Over the next two days, WPC has a marginal risk (Level 1
of 4) for excessive rainfall for areas north and west of the
Florida Big Bend. Localized nuisance flooding in poor drainage
areas will be possible where storms are slow moving or train over
an area for an extended period of time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  75  93  75 /  70  20  70  30
Panama City   89  79  89  79 /  90  50  80  60
Dothan        92  74  89  73 /  90  50  90  50
Albany        92  74  92  73 /  70  50  80  40
Valdosta      92  75  95  75 /  60  30  60  30
Cross City    92  75  94  75 /  60  20  70  30
Apalachicola  88  80  89  80 /  90  30  70  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Scholl