Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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540 FXUS62 KTAE 082302 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 702 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 We`ll remain on the western side of an upper level ridge tonight, while Tropical Storm Beryl gets absorbed into an upper level trough. This should lead to quiet conditions tonight and leave us with a mix of clouds. Tomorrow, the upper level low lifts to the northeast, which will pull a slug of moisture into the region. Another day of scattered to widespread showers, spreading from south to north. Heavy rain will be the main hazard, and localized flooding will be possible in areas that have training or slow moving storms. In terms of the heat, FL counties continue to flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. Uncertainty remains if these will be realized since storms may form earlier in the day. Highs for Tuesday are suppose to be in the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 West to southwesterly mid-low-level flow maintains a tropical airmass as the remnants of Beryl races across the OH/TN Valley while merging with a frontal zone. Model guidance suggests bands convection streaming ENE from the Northern Gulf Coast into our service area. Axis of highest PoP shifts from the FL Panhandle/SE AL early Wednesday to the FL Big Bend/I-75 Corridor by the afternoon before dwindling inland after sunset. Heavy rain is likely to be a concern given forecast Precipitable Water in the 2.2-2.4" range. The tradeoff to this upcoming wet weather is relatively "cooler" temperatures and what appears to be sub-advisory level heat indices (though still hot). High temperatures are slated to be mainly in the low 90s with lows in the mid/upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The region gets sandwiched between a subtropical ridge attempting to nudge in from Bermuda and upper troughing to our north to begin the long-term period. A front sagging south ushers in relatively drier air from the north, thus limiting convective coverage late week. As ridging becomes better established this weekend into early next week, we should revert to more of a typical summertime pattern characterized by diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms initially forced by the seabreeze and hot/muggy conditions. Overall, expect a heating trend with daily highs in the mid-90s and triple-digit heat indices. Overnight lows remain in the sultry 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Continued showers and thunderstorms are expected at VLD, DHN, and ABY through the 03 UTC this evening. Storms should wain through the overnight period, before getting an early start on Tuesday across the Florida Panhandle. These storms will initially impact ECP through the mid morning hours, before spreading areawide to impact the remainder of the terminals through the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. Expect brief periods of MVFR to LIFR conditions with thunderstorms that impact any terminal. There is a small signal that MVFR CIGs could develop at DHN during the early morning hours prior to sunrise, so a brief line was added for this possibility, and may be amended at a later time if these restrictions do not develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting SE to SW winds around 10 kts with 1-3-ft seas and a dominant period of 6-8 seconds this afternoon. From CWF Synopsis...Mainly west to southwest winds at 10 knots or less prevail through the next several days. Lingering swells from Beryl maintain a dominant wave period of about 7 seconds and seas of 3 to 4 feet into mid-week. Conditions improve thereafter with the primary marine concern being daily chances for thunderstorms capable of locally gusty winds, lightning, and waterspouts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The main fire weather concerns will be high dispersions on Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, wet weather persist Tuesday with scattered to widespread showers and tstorms. A weak front moves through midweek, which will lower moisture over the region. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible; however, the best chances look to be over the FL counties midweek. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Wet weather sticks around into mid-week before rain chances drop to below average Thursday-Friday. Heavy rain tomorrow could lead to instances of flash or nuisance flooding. It would not be surprising to see a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) introduced by the WPC along/south of the FL state line in future outlooks for Tuesday. Forecast rain amounts are generally less than 2" (isolated higher). On the riverine front, there are currently no concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 78 91 76 92 / 30 90 10 50 Panama City 81 90 80 87 / 30 70 50 60 Dothan 76 93 75 90 / 30 80 20 40 Albany 76 93 78 93 / 40 80 10 40 Valdosta 76 93 77 94 / 40 90 20 50 Cross City 77 90 76 92 / 40 90 20 40 Apalachicola 82 89 81 90 / 50 80 20 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134. High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KR SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...KR HYDROLOGY...IG3