684
FXUS62 KTAE 191754
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
154 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

We remain nestled between ridging to the east and troughing to the
north and west. This corridor will once again place the region under
high moisture content, with PWATs ranging between 2 and 2.5 inches.
Showers and thunderstorms throughout the day will be capable of
producing localized torrential downpours. Activity today is again
expected to begin winding down around sunset as diurnal forcing
fades.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight
lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

And the beat goes on and on. Fairly stagnant pattern set up with
troughing through the Midwest southwest to the southern Plains
while the subtropical ridge is shunted eastward. Low to mid level
flow will continue southwesterly which keeps the 2-2.25 inch
PWATs and deep layer moisture pumping in from the Gulf. Streamer
showers and Gulf convection will develop in the overnight to early
morning hours then predominately shift inland in the morning with
additional convection developing in the afternoon hours then
waning in the evening hours. This typical summertime regime cycle
continues each day. The more convection and cloud cover generated
over the area leads to highs in the low 90s with mid 90s in areas
that miss out of the clouds/convection. Lows will begin each day
in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The aforementioned conditions from the short term continue into
the long term. A tropical wave moves across the Florida peninsula
into our area Tuesday and Wednesday then the Atlantic ridge
appears to build west through the southeast US towards Thursday
with mid level flow becoming more southeasterly and perhaps
slightly drier air in the mid levels which may tamp down rain
chances slightly. Otherwise, its the same song and dance. Rain
chances will remain at above climatological norm and favor the
typical diurnal trends. Highs will range through the low to mid
90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the period except for
brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions as showers and thunderstorms
affect area terminals. Best chances for the remainder of the day
will be at DHN/ABY/VLD with chances lessening at ECP/TLH slowly
through the day. Additional thunderstorms will develop later in
the TAF period and again move inland fairly quickly like today
with ECP/TLH seeing activity possibly as early as 10 to 12z
Saturday with DHN/ABY/VLD seeing activity possibly as early as
15/16z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Favorable marine conditions are expected with light southerly
winds around 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 to 2 feet through the
next week. The main boating hazards will be widespread showers
and storms, especially in the pre-dawn and morning hours before
activity moves inland for the afternoon and evening hours.
Suddenly higher winds, frequent lightning, waterspouts, and
increased seas are possible in the vicinity of any storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Morning and afternoon showers and thunderstorms are once
again on tap for today and tomorrow. Other than erratic
directional wind changes around thunderstorms, there are currently
no fire weather concerns. Fair to good dispersions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Rain chances remain will remain well above normal through the next
5 to 7 days. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, with
the higher amounts closer to the coast, should not cause any
riverine issues. WPC has outlooked much of the area northwest of
the eastern Florida Big Bend in a marginal risk (1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall. Main flooding concerns revolve around high
rainfall rates and very localized flooding possible in any areas
where slow moving and/or training storms affect a location. In
these spots a quick 2 to 4 inches of rainfall within an hour or
two is possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  75  90  75 /  80  40  80  30
Panama City   89  78  89  78 /  80  60  70  50
Dothan        89  72  90  73 /  80  60  80  40
Albany        91  72  90  73 /  80  50  80  40
Valdosta      94  74  93  74 /  60  40  70  30
Cross City    93  75  93  76 /  70  30  80  30
Apalachicola  89  80  89  80 /  70  50  70  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs