196
FXUS62 KTAE 170118
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
918 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Lowered temps several degrees within the rain-cooled air over
portions of SE AL and SW GA, but no changes to overnight low
temps.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Another day of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Wednesday.
Upper level troughing will present to our north, while we remain
entrenched in tropical moisture. Any slow moving storms will have
the capability of producing heavy rain which could lead to localized
flooding issues. Gusty and erratic winds could be possible as well.
In terms of temperatures, low`s for Wednesday morning will be in the
mid 70s with highs rising to the mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A 500mb trough will be in place across the Great lakes region both
Wednesday and Thursday as it slowly progresses eastward. This
trough, along with bringing in lower 500mb heights to the region
is also aiding in retreating the Bermuda ridge east into the
central Atlantic. This will help bring temperatures back to near
normal levels for this time of year. Although the upper level
ridge is expected to retreat east, it will continue to advect deep
tropical moisture from the Caribbean into the deep south. This
will keep PWATs in the 1.8-2.1 inch range across the region, and
lead to elevated shower and thunderstorms chances each day. These
increased rain chances combined with the slightly lower 500mb
heights over the region, high temperatures will climb into the low
to mid 90s across the region, while lows Wednesday night will
fall into the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The extended forecast from the end of the work week through the
weekend, is not expected to change significantly from Wednesday
and Thursday. The mid and upper level flow pattern over the
eastern United States is not expected to change drastically
through the weekend, with the 500mb ridge over the western
Atlantic expected to retrograde west into the Southeast starting
Saturday. This will primarily be driven by the lifting of the
aforementioned upper level trough that was centered over the Great
Lakes and Northeast regions. Generally speaking, rain chances
will remain elevated although slightly less through the weekend as
the upper level ridge nudges west over the deep south starting
Saturday. Overall, the Bermuda high will continue to advect deep
tropical moisture into the region, with an open tropical wave
possibly moving over Florida by the end of the period next Monday.
Overall, with rain chances remaining elevated, highs will be more
seasonable in the low 90s through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Fairly typical conditions for midsummer are expected this cycle.
Convection appears to be over for the evening at the TAF sites and
VFR conditions will prevail until tomorrow`s storms get going.
These will develop from south to north from late morning into the
afternoon hours. If a storm moves over a terminal, brief gusty
winds and MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 916 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Tranquil marine conditions continue the rest of the week.
Light to moderate south or southwesterly winds are expected
through Saturday before turning more southeasterly early next
week. Seas will generally run less than 2 feet. The exception will
be showers and thunderstorms developing during the early morning
hours each day. Any storms could create suddenly higher winds,
frequent lightning, waterspouts, and increased seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The main fire weather concern will the potential for high
dispersions areas east of the Flint and Apalachicola rivers on
Friday. Otherwise, wet weather continues with renewed chances for
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Deep tropical moisture is expected to continue to advect into the
region from the southeast thanks to the Bermuda surface high
pressure over the Atlantic. This will keep increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for each afternoon and
evening through the next week. Overall, expect localized flash
street and nuisance flooding with any slow moving, training, or
back building thunderstorms. WPC widespread rainfall is generally
1-2 inches over the next 7 days. This will keep riverine flooding
concerns to a minimum.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  75  94  75 /  70  20  70  20
Panama City   91  80  91  80 /  50  30  60  40
Dothan        94  74  95  75 /  60  20  50  20
Albany        93  76  95  75 /  60  20  50  20
Valdosta      94  75  96  75 /  60  30  60  10
Cross City    93  76  93  75 /  70  20  70  20
Apalachicola  89  80  90  79 /  50  20  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Bunker/LF
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Bunker