856
FXUS62 KTAE 111855
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
255 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Quiet weather is on tap through tomorrow as relatively dry air
filters into the region from the north. Ridging aloft will supress
convection and fair weather Cu could be expected tomorrow afternoon.
Otherwise, it`ll be a pleasant day.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with
overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Model and ensemble guidance show upper level ridging holding through
Saturday. Then ridging loses its grip and becomes a bit flattened
Sunday into Monday. An upper level ridge over the four-corners
builds and we`ll then be caught and the Bermuda High. Moisture will
slowly creep back into region, with daily afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. In terms of temperatures, we peak in the mid to upper
90s Saturday and Sunday, with more widespread mid 90s expected for
the early portion of the week. Heat index values increase with the
moisture, with advisory level criteria potentially being met on
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible affecting ECP
and TLH terminals this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected for all terminals through the TAF period with light
northwesterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Broad low pressure near the coastal Carolinas will support
moderate west to northwesterly breezes at times through tomorrow.
Surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf will expand and
strengthen on Saturday, bringing a decrease in wind speeds. A high
pressure ridge axis will persist from the Florida Peninsula to
the Middle Gulf on Sunday and Monday, bringing light and gentle
southwest breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Drier air is forecast to filter in overhead in the wake of today`s
front. Isolated showers and storms will be possible each day for the
next several day, primarily along and south of the I-10 corridor.
Fair to good dispersions are expected the next few days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Drier weather is on tap today and tomorrow, with any precip chances
being confined to the coast perhaps maybe creeping up to I-10. Come
the weekend, precipitation chances begin to increase. No major
flooding concerns are expected. Possible short-lived runoff issues
will be possible next week beneath any slow-moving thunderstorms, as
is typical in the summer.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  96  76  98 /   0  10   0  30
Panama City   78  94  80  94 /  10  20  10  30
Dothan        72  96  74  98 /   0  10   0  10
Albany        72  97  74  98 /   0  10   0  10
Valdosta      73  96  74  98 /   0  10   0  20
Cross City    75  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  50
Apalachicola  79  92  80  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...KR