224
FXUS62 KTAE 120713
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
313 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Warm and relatively dry conditions will continue today in the wake
of yesterday`s front. High temperatures are forecast to climb into
the mid to upper 90s this afternoon, but thanks to the drier air
overhead, heat indices should max out around 95 to 105 degrees. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon
along the seabreeze and south of I-10, but overall chances are
pretty low. Lows tonight are forecast in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

An H5 ridge will be building overhead this weekend, helping to keep
a lid on rain chances. That said, enough moisture is forecast to
stream back into the region that isolated showers and storms are
possible each afternoon. Temperatures will generally climb into the
middle to upper 90s both afternoons with lows in the middle to upper
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The H5 ridge from the weekend is forecast to weaken over the region
as a trough moves through the Great Lakes. This combined with
precipitable water values (PWATs) increase to 2"+ and there is the
chance for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Temperatures will ease back a bit to the middle 90s each
day with lows remaining in the middle to upper 70s. Heat indices
will increase to 103 to 107 degrees, or just shy of Heat Advisory
criteria, or 108 degrees or higher, much of next week. In other
words, additional Heat Advisories cannot be ruled out at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A weak surface low off coastal South Carolina will support moderate
west to northwesterly breezes at times today. Surface high pressure
over the eastern Gulf will expand and strengthen on Saturday,
bringing a decrease in wind speeds. A high pressure ridge axis will
persist from the Florida Peninsula to the Middle Gulf into early
next week, bringing light and gentle southwest breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Drier air will remain overhead for the next few days in the wake of
yesterday`s cold front. A few showers and storms will be possible
each day, mainly south of I-10. High mixing heights may lead to very
good dispersions for portions of the area in the afternoons. There
are no fire weather concerns at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

An isolated shower or two is possible along the sea breeze this
afternoon. However, most are expected to remain dry today. Moisture
works back into the region over the weekend, increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Localized
street and nuisance flooding may be possible within any slow moving
showers and thunderstorms, as is typical in the summer.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  76  98  77 /  10   0  20   0
Panama City   94  80  94  80 /  10  10  30  10
Dothan        96  74  98  76 /  10   0  10   0
Albany        96  74  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      97  74  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
Cross City    96  76  96  76 /  10  10  40  10
Apalachicola  93  80  91  80 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese