Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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703 FXUS62 KTAE 112303 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 703 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Quiet weather is on tap through tomorrow as relatively dry air filters into the region from the north. Ridging aloft will supress convection and fair weather Cu could be expected tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, it`ll be a pleasant day. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Model and ensemble guidance show upper level ridging holding through Saturday. Then ridging loses its grip and becomes a bit flattened Sunday into Monday. An upper level ridge over the four- corners builds and we`ll then be caught and the Bermuda High. Moisture will slowly creep back into region, with daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms. In terms of temperatures, we peak in the mid to upper 90s Saturday and Sunday, with more widespread mid 90s expected for the early portion of the week. Heat index values increase with the moisture, with advisory level criteria potentially being met on Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Broad low pressure near the coastal Carolinas will support moderate west to northwesterly breezes at times through tomorrow. Surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf will expand and strengthen on Saturday, bringing a decrease in wind speeds. A high pressure ridge axis will persist from the Florida Peninsula to the Middle Gulf on Sunday and Monday, bringing light and gentle southwest breezes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Drier air is forecast to filter in overhead in the wake of today`s front. Isolated showers and storms will be possible each day for the next several day, primarily along and south of the I-10 corridor. Fair to good dispersions are expected the next few days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Drier weather is on tap today and tomorrow, with any precip chances being confined to the coast perhaps maybe creeping up to I-10. Come the weekend, precipitation chances begin to increase. No major flooding concerns are expected. Possible short-lived runoff issues will be possible next week beneath any slow-moving thunderstorms, as is typical in the summer. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 96 76 98 / 0 10 0 30 Panama City 78 94 80 94 / 10 20 10 30 Dothan 72 96 74 98 / 0 10 0 10 Albany 72 97 74 98 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 73 96 74 98 / 0 10 0 20 Cross City 75 95 76 95 / 10 20 10 50 Apalachicola 79 92 80 91 / 10 20 10 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Friday for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Oliver SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...KR