785
FXUS62 KTAE 122313
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
713 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Another relatively quiet weather is on tap through tomorrow. Ridging
aloft will continue to supress convection and fair weather Cu could
be expected again tomorrow afternoon. Some weak development along
the sea breeze could be possible, but PoPs are low. Otherwise, it`ll
be a pleasant day.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Upper level ridge will be in control of upper level pattern over
the weekend and with lower rain chances likely, temperatures will
be quite warm and in the mid to upper 90s. While deep layer
moisture will not support widespread showers and storms, plenty of
low-level moisture and abundant sunshine should allow heat indices
to creep back up to to near advisory level criteria of 108 F.
Scattered showers and storms should develop in the afternoon and
mostly along the seabreezes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The warm temperatures continue into the early part of next week
but as the ridge weakens and deep-layer moisture makes a steady
return in response to a deepening trough over the central/eastern
portions of the US, rain chances will likely increase through the
week. Additionally, the higher rain chances should keep max
temperatures a few degrees lower into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some isolated TSRA
may develop near ECP and TLH as the sea breeze moves inland after
18z, where winds become more southwesterly. Otherwise, light and
variable winds are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Light winds and seas will prevail through the weekend and next
week with high pressure in control. Only sensible weather concerns
through the period will be slight increases in nearshore winds as
the seabreeze develops each afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are
forecast through the weekend with rain chances increasing early
next week. Highest rain chances will generally be in the early
morning hours next week when rain chances return.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A few showers and storms will be possible each day, mainly south of
I-10. High mixing heights may lead to very good dispersions for
portions of the area in the afternoons. There are no fire weather
concerns at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Rainfall amounts will be less than 2 to 3 inches through the next
7 days with most of these rainfall amounts falling next week if
the current return to a more normal summer patten verifies next
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  76  97  77 /  10   0  30  10
Panama City   94  80  93  80 /  10  10  40  10
Dothan        96  74  98  76 /  10   0  20   0
Albany        96  73  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      97  74  98  76 /   0   0  10   0
Cross City    96  76  96  76 /  10  10  40  10
Apalachicola  93  80  92  80 /  20  10  50  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs