168
FXUS62 KTAE 171035
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
635 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Troughiness to the north and west will allow for shortwaves to ride
over the ridge currently over the FL Peninsula and the western
Atlantic. This will lead to forcing for ascent, and when coupled
with the high moisture content (PWATs around 2 inches) given the
established southerly flow, we`ll have elevated chances for precip
today. Showers and storms will begin late this morning across our
eastern Gulf waters and move inland across the FL Big Bend and
southern GA into the early afternoon. Meanwhile, across the FL
Panhandle and SE activity is expected to begin in the early
afternoon and continue into the early evening. Forcing will be
provided through the sea breeze and by mid-level perturbations.
We`ll have to see if the activity from later this morning provides
enough cloud cover to inhibit widespread convection later this
afternoon. Nonetheless, activity is expected to be diurnally forced,
thus winding down around sunset.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 90s with overnight lows
generally in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Upper troughing will remain across the northeastern US stretching
southwestward towards the upper Texas coast, splitting between an
upper high over the southwest US and the subtropical ridge in the
western Atlantic. A weak cold front will come up short and stall
just north of the forecast area Thursday and Friday and will serve
as a focus for elevated shower and storm chances through our
northern and western counties. PWATs will continue in the
1.9-2.25 inch range leading to good coverage of convection each
afternoon. Highs Thursday afternoon will be in the mid 90s but
with increased cloud and rain coverage Friday, highs may be
tempered somewhat into the low 90s through the panhandle and
southeast Alabama areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Conditions from the short term continue into the long term period,
with an upper low developing in the central Plains this weekend
into early next week. Cold front moves back north Sunday and
Monday as the Bermuda ridge noses back into the area. Rain chances
may decrease some Monday before increasing again Tuesday as a
tropical wave moves across the Florida peninsula into the western
Gulf bringing another influx of tropical moisture. All in all,
elevated rain chances continue through the long term with good
coverage of showers and storms each day with the exception of
lower chances Monday and Monday afternoon. With the increased rain
chances and subsequent cloud coverage, highs will run in the low
to mid 90s each day and lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms, beginning late this morning and continuing into the
afternoon, could lead to brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions
if they occur directly over a terminal. Otherwise, expect activity
to begin winding down around sunset with VFR conditions prevailing
into the overnight period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Favorable marine conditions continue the rest of the week. Light
to moderate south or southwesterly winds are expected through
Saturday before turning more southeasterly early next week. Seas
will generally run less than 2 feet. The exception will be showers
and thunderstorms developing during the early morning hours each
day. Any storms could create suddenly higher winds, frequent
lightning, waterspouts, and increased seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Late morning and afternoon showers and thunderstorms are once
again on tap for today and tomorrow. Other than erratic
directional wind changes around thunderstorms, there are currently
no fire weather concerns. Fair to good dispersions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will set up through early next week
with troughing overhead and deep tropical moisture in place.
Through the next seven days, WPC rainfall amounts have come up
somewhat to 2-3 inches with locally higher amounts. WPC has
introduced a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in our southeast
Alabama counties for this weekend in closer proximity to a stalled
cold front in central Alabama. This may lead to localized nuisance
flooding in poor drainage areas where storms are slow moving or
train over an area for an extended period of time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  75  93  74 /  70  20  80  30
Panama City   91  80  90  78 /  60  40  80  60
Dothan        95  75  93  73 /  60  30  80  60
Albany        95  75  94  74 /  40  30  80  50
Valdosta      95  75  95  74 /  50  20  70  40
Cross City    92  75  93  75 /  80  20  80  20
Apalachicola  90  79  89  80 /  80  40  80  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Scholl