226
FXUS62 KTAE 131335
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
935 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The current forecast remains on track, no updates are planned at
this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Ridging overhead today along with a bit of drier air will allow high
temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.
However, thanks to the drier air heat indices should remain
generally in the 100-107 degree range. A few spots particularly in
the coastal Panhandle may hit 108, but coverage is expected to be
too sparse to warrant a heat advisory at this point. A few showers
and storms may develop along the seabreeze this afternoon and remain
generally along or south of I-10. Coverage is expected to be fairly
isolated however thanks to the ridging overhead. Lows are expected
in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The region will be under the influence of a mid-level ridge through
the period. However, ample moisture in the lower-levels of the
atmosphere and the afternoon sea breeze should be enough to allow a
few showers and storms to develop Sunday and Monday afternoons.
Locally heavy rain is the primary concern within any of the
thunderstorms as they mosey about the area. Hot temperatures are
expected outside of the showers and thunderstorms with highs in the
middle to upper 90s expected Sunday afternoon with the mid-level
ridge holding firm. It weakens some on Monday as temperatures ease
back into the middle 90s across the area. Heat advisories may be
needed Sunday afternoon, especially across our Florida Counties.
Slightly cooler temperatures Monday afternoon may keep us below heat
advisory criteria around the region; we shall see.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The big story in the extended forecast is the return of scattered to
perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon,
especially Wednesday and beyond. This is due to a mid-level trough
attempting to move over the eastern half of the country.
Precipitable water values (PWATS) between 1.9" and 2.3" are forecast
to return by the middle of the week, which should enhance the
coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze. That said, have
elected to cap rain chances at 60 percent this far out, which is
more in-line with MOS guidance. It`s worth noting that the NBM has
80 to 90 percent POPs in the extended. However, it`s had a bit of a
wet bias as of late the past few weeks, which played into the
decision to temper rain chances for much of the long term period.
Temperatures ease back into the lower to middle 90s each afternoon
thanks to the increased potential for clouds/rain. Overnight lows
will remain a few degrees above normal, or generally in the middle
to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A bit of fog will be possible across portions of SW Georgia this
morning. A few showers and storms will be possible across FL
later this afternoon with the seabreeze. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Favorable marine conditions are anticipated through the weekend into
early next week. Light to moderate westerly winds turn more
southwesterly by mid to late next week with seas generally less than
2 feet. Rain chances increase next week, with the highest chances
for rain in the early morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A few showers and storms will be possible each day, mainly south of
I-10. High mixing heights may lead to very good dispersions for
portions of the area in the afternoons. There are no fire weather
concerns at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

An isolated shower or two is possible along the sea breeze again
this afternoon. However, most are expected to remain dry today.
Moisture works back into the region early next week, increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Localized street and nuisance flooding may be possible within any
slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as is typical in the summer.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  77  97  77 /  30   0  40  10
Panama City   93  80  93  80 /  30  10  40  10
Dothan        97  75  98  76 /  10  10  30  10
Albany        96  76  98  77 /  10   0  20  10
Valdosta      96  76  98  77 /  10   0  30  10
Cross City    94  77  94  76 /  40  10  60  20
Apalachicola  92  80  91  80 /  40  10  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese