838
FXUS62 KTAE 171923
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
323 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Mid and upper level troughing centered over the Great Lakes region
today, is expected to slowly propagate eastward towards the
northeast on Thursday. As this happens, a frontal boundary is
expected to push south into north/central Alabama and Georgia by the
late evening hours. Initially through the morning hours, expect an
additional round of isolated to scattered convection in the NE Gulf
waters to develop off the land breeze before pushing inland to
coastal Florida zones by the 9am-1pm EDT time frame. This will
likely keep high temperatures capped once again in the low 90s
across all Florida zones as cloud cover is expected to quickly
develop from storm outflow. This convection is expected to slowly
push inland through the afternoon and evening hours on stronger
storms outflow boundaries. Convection that develops along the
aforementioned frontal boundary will likely develop in north
central Alabama and Georgia, and push south along outflow
boundaries through the evening and early overnight hours. This may
collide with northward moving convection from the seabreeze
during that time window, and could potentially lead to some
flooding concerns in SE Alabama and SW Georgia.

With PWATs generally sitting around 2 inches, expect shower and
thunderstorm coverage to be widespread throughout the region.
Some storms may also be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall,
with localized flash flooding in poor drainage and urban
environments possible. A strong wind gust or two can`t be ruled
out with the strongest convective towers that develop. Highs will
likely be capped by convection and cloud cover throughout the day
in the low 90s. A few areas that remain clear, and don`t see a
shower or thunderstorm until later in the evening could see high
temperatures reach the mid 90s. Lows tonight will generally fall
into the mid 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Deep upper level troughing will stretch across the Mississippi
River, nudging the sub tropical ridge over the Atlantic to the
east. At the surface, a front stalls out to our north increasing
the chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Moisture remains high with PWATs around 1.8-2.5", with heavy rain
and localized flooding being possible in slow moving or training
storms. In terms of temperatures, highs should be around the low
to mid 90s for Friday. Though there`s a chance temps could be a
few degrees lower depending on cloud cover and rain.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

No major changes to the forecast as ensemble guidance shows the
Atlantic ridge building back over the southeast, pushing the
trough to our north. This will slowly push the front from Friday
even more northwards over the weekend, which could lower
precipitation chances a bit. Come early next week, tropical
moisture from the Atlantic surges westward, which will lead to
increased chances for showers and storms again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to push inland
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening today.
These storms will bring brief periods of MVFR to LIFR conditions
to all terminals they impact. Shower and thunderstorm activity
should diminish within 1-2 hours of sunset this evening. VFR
conditions look to continue through the end of the period.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will push inland during the
late morning hours at ECP and TLH Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Favorable marine conditions continue the rest of the week. Light
to moderate south or southwesterly winds are expected through
Saturday before turning more southeasterly early next week. Seas
will generally run less than 2 feet. The exception will be showers
and thunderstorms developing during the early morning hours each
day. Any storms could create suddenly higher winds, frequent
lightning, waterspouts, and increased seas.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Another wet few days are on top for the region, with elevated PoPs
forecast areawide. Other than frequent lightning and erratic wind
changes in the vicinity of thunderstorms, there are currently no
fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Wetter weather will prevail over much of the forecast period. The
latest WPC guidance has come down a skosh, to about 1.5-3.0 inches
of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. There is marginal
risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday for most
the area excluding the eastern FL Big Bend counties and again on
Friday for all of southeast AL, southwest GA, and the western FL
Panhandle counties. Localized nuisance flooding in poor drainage
areas will be possible where storms are slow moving or train over
an area for an extended period of time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  92  75  93 /  20  80  20  70
Panama City   79  90  78  90 /  30  80  50  80
Dothan        74  94  73  91 /  20  80  40  80
Albany        74  94  73  93 /  30  70  40  80
Valdosta      75  95  75  95 /  50  60  20  70
Cross City    75  94  75  94 /  30  70  20  60
Apalachicola  79  89  80  90 /  40  80  40  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...KR