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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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319 FXUS62 KTAE 141712 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 112 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Ridging overhead today will once again allow high temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. Gradually increasing moisture across the region will also allow heat indices to creep up to the 105 to 110 degree range, and a heat advisory has been issued for portions of Florida and Southeast Alabama where confidence in 108+ is higher. Increasing moisture will also allow a bit more coverage of showers and storms this afternoon, although most activity is expected to remain along the seabreeze generally south of I-10. Lows are expected in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The mid-level ridge will be in the process of weakening as the work week starts. Add in more moisture returning to the area and the sea breeze should be more robust Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Locally heavy rain is the primary concern within any of the thunderstorms as they mosey about the region due to rather weak steering flow aloft. Hot temperatures are expected outside of the thunderstorms with highs in the middle to upper 90s both afternoons. With the added surface moisture, heat indices will be approaching Heat Advisory criteria both afternoons. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The big story in the extended forecast is the return of scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. This is due to a mid-level trough attempting to move over the eastern half of the country. Precipitable water values (PWATS) between 1.9" and 2.3" are forecast to return by the middle of the week, which should enhance the coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze. That said, have elected to cap rain chances at 60 percent this far out, which continue to remain in-line with MOS guidance. It`s worth noting that the NBM has 80 to 90 percent POPs in the extended. As mentioned yesterday, the NBM has had a bit of a wet bias as of late the past few weeks, which played into the decision to temper rain chances for much of the long term period. Temperatures ease back into the lower to middle 90s each afternoon thanks to the increased potential for clouds/rain. Overnight lows will remain a few degrees above normal, or generally in the middle to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Only exception will be very brief MVFR/IFR conditions if any thunderstorms develop in the vicinity of any terminals. Thunderstorms will generally be most prevalent from 19-00z this afternoon with quiet conditions expected overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Favorable marine conditions are forecast into early next week. Light to moderate westerly winds turn more southwesterly by mid to late next week with seas generally less than 2 feet. Rain chances increase through next week, with the highest chances for rain generally in the early morning hours and in the middle part of the upcoming week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon, with the greatest coverage generally across Florida and along the seabreeze. Moisture will continue to gradually increase across the area over the next few days. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible along the sea breeze this afternoon. More moisture works back into the region early next week, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Localized street and nuisance flooding may be possible within any slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as is typical in the summer. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 95 76 95 / 10 60 20 60 Panama City 79 91 79 92 / 10 60 20 60 Dothan 76 97 75 96 / 10 60 20 60 Albany 77 97 76 96 / 10 50 20 60 Valdosta 77 97 76 97 / 20 60 20 60 Cross City 76 94 76 95 / 10 60 20 60 Apalachicola 79 90 79 90 / 10 50 20 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127. GA...None. AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ068. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese