252
FXUS62 KTAE 151752
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

No changes to the forecast yet this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms have developed over the western portion of our Gulf
waters and have started making it onshore to the Emerald Coast.
Per satellite imagery cumulus has developed south of I-10, mostly
clear skies north. Confidence at this time remains low as to
whether or not we`ll Heat Advisory criteria, especially as
convection and cloud cover increases. Will re- evaluate this in
the next few couple of hours just in case, with the best chance
for issuance likely being east of the Apalachicola River. Perhaps
from Liberty County to Madison County, excluding the coastal
zones.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Ridging overhead will begin to break down today as a bit of
troughing moves over the Southeast CONUS. This will allow for more
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms today, particularly
along the seabreeze. While still quite warm, high temps without as
much ridging are forecast in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices are
forecast to reach the 105-110 degree range due to increasing
moisture, but confidence is a bit lower today as increased PoPs
could end up limiting temperatures further. Will hold off on a heat
advisory at this point and let the morning update take a look at
latest trends before the final decision. Lows tonight are forecast
generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The Bermuda High will continue to pump moisture into the region
through the middle of the work week. As a result, rain chances
remain elevated each afternoon, but not before temperatures climb
into the middle 90s. Relatively weak winds throughout the column
means any showers and storms that happen to develop each day will be
slow movers. Combine this with preciptable water values (PWATs)
forecast to be above the 75th percentile, or 2", and there is the
chance for localized flooding within any of the stronger storms.
Speaking of stronger storms, there is the potential for some gusty
winds with DCAPE values forecast to generally be between 600 to 800
J/kg.

Rain chances then shift offshore each night with the best
opportunity for rain at night along the immediate coast and over the
Gulf waters. Lows will be quite sultry with temperatures remaining
in the middle to upper 70s for much of the region with lows near 80
along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A weakening front will enter the Southeast later this week and stall
well north of the area. As a result, shower and thunderstorm chances
remain elevated through the long term as a moist airmass remains in
place. There is still some uncertainty with where exactly the front
stalls in the Southeast, so capped rain chances at 60 to 70 percent,
which is more in-line with MOS guidance as opposed to the NBM, which
has 80-90 percent rain chances this weekend.

As for temperatures, most afternoons should still see the middle 90s
across the area with overnight lows in the middle to upper 70s.
Confidence is a bit lower than usual with temperatures due to some
of the uncertainty about how widespread the showers/storms will be
and the resultant cloud cover. It`s worth mentioning that the 50th
percentile of the NBM is a bit cooler than the NBM, which means
temperatures may nudge down a bit in subsequent forecasts. We shall
see.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Showers and thunderstorms developed along the seabreeze as
expected this afternoon, with storms currently arriving in the
western FL Big Bend. To the north, in SW GA, the airmass is moist
and unstable, with a weaker signal of southwest winds being
observed. Added in some TEMPOs for -TSRA but given observations
were not showing MVFR status in the past, opted to only hint at
the possibility of lower cig and vis with it. This may need to be
adjusted as storms start to develop or move over nearby sites.
Regarding timing, adjusted KECP to have VCTS end earlier and start
the next round of sea breeze storms tomorrow morning. Elsewhere,
confidence is lower in what might happen tonight. Ended up using a
combination of the NAMNST and HRRR for timing, though both ended
up having different end time solutions. There`s a chance some
storms could linger past sunset, but confidence was too low to
adjust to that forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1019 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms hold over the waters west of
Apalachicola this morning. Storms are capable of producing gusty
and erratic winds, waterspouts, frequent lightning and heavy down
pours. Conditions should improve by the afternoon. Outside of
that, favorable marine conditions continue through the work week.
Light to moderate southwesterly to southerly winds are expected
through Saturday before turning more southeasterly over the
weekend. Seas will generally run less than 2 feet. Daily shower
and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast, especially in the
early morning hours, the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon,
with the greatest coverage generally across Florida and along the
seabreeze. Moisture will continue to gradually increase across the
area over the next few days. There are no fire weather concerns at
this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible along the sea
breeze again this afternoon. More moisture works back into the
region this week, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. Localized street and nuisance flooding
may be possible within any slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as
is typical in the summer. No riverine flooding is expected in the
next 7 to 10 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  94  76  95 /  20  70  20  70
Panama City   79  91  80  91 /  20  50  20  70
Dothan        75  95  75  95 /  30  70  20  70
Albany        75  94  76  95 /  20  60  20  70
Valdosta      75  96  76  97 /  20  60  20  70
Cross City    75  93  76  94 /  20  60  20  60
Apalachicola  79  89  80  90 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese