![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
163 FXUS62 KTAE 152335 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 735 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 We`ll remain on the western periphery of the Bermuda high on Tuesday. Moisture will continue to pump in from the southwest, while showers and thunderstorms generally fire up along the seabreeze. Highs for Tuesday remain toasty in the mid 90s; however, the question remains how much will the seabreeze storms and cloud cover mess with the forecast in terms of heat index. Should these form early enough, we may either briefly or never realize heat index values of 105 to 112 in the western FL Panhandle, portions of SE AL, the first tier of our southern most counties in GA (Seminole to Lowndes), and the western FL Big Bend. Confidence is too low at this time to hoist a Heat Advisory at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Mid and upper level troughing is expected to dig southward through the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday, which will start to lower 500 mb heights across the eastern Conus. This will similarly cause the Bermuda ridge to retreat eastward into the central Atlantic during this time. While much of the upper level forcing for ascent will be well to the north of the region, a frontal boundary associated with the upper level trough will lead to shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday night primarily in SE Alabama and SW Georgia. With PWATs near 1.8-2 inches areawide, afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms will be likely across all Florida zones; however, the frontal boundary will likely bring a weakening line of showers and thunderstorms to SE Alabama and SW Georgia late Wednesday night. Current forecast DCAPE values are generally expected to be between 600-800 J/Kg, which is not particularly high enough to cause severe downbursts; however, strong winds will still be possible with the strongest storms that develop across the region Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday will be their warmest, before an overall cooling trend starts, with highs peaking in the mid 90s areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The aforementioned mid and upper level trough will continue to progress eastward through the end of the work week before being re-enforced on Saturday and Sunday as an additional trough digs south into the great lakes Saturday. Through the middle to later half of the work week, the initial mid and upper level trough that digs into the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday remains fairly quasi-stationary, slightly lower 500 mb heights look to remain in place across the Deep South. This will keep high temperatures overall near seasonable levels in the low to mid 90s. This will similarly be in conjunction with increased rain chances, as the Bermuda ridge and surface high pressure system continually advect high PWATs from the deep tropics into the southeast through the extended. These increased PWATs will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the work week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Some lingering -TSRA/SHRA this evening near KABY and KDHN. Otherwise, conditions are generally VFR under light winds. The lingering activity is expected to diminish after sunset. Thereafter, a slight reduction in visibility may be possible in the early morning hours mainly around KDHN, KABY, and KVLD. There is some uncertainty with that, but I have included it in the TAFs for now. A similar day is expected tomorrow with -TSRA/-SHRA activity starting near KECP, then near the inland TAF sites by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Favorable marine conditions continue through the work week and into the weekend with overall light southwesterly winds around 5-10 knots expected. Seas will generally run less than 2 feet. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast, especially in the early morning hours, the next several days. These showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce waterspouts, and boaters should remain vigilant while out on the water as conditions can rapidly deteriorate in and around these thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Outside of the possibility for elevated to high dispersions on Thursday, there are no fire weather concerns. Moisture will continue to increase each day, with showers and thunderstorms being possible each day. The highest chances will be over the FL counties and along the sea breeze, though chances increase inland at the end of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 More moisture works back into the region this week, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Localized street and nuisance flooding may be possible within any slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as is typical in the summer. No riverine flooding is expected in the next 7 to 10 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 76 94 76 / 60 20 70 10 Panama City 91 80 91 80 / 50 30 70 20 Dothan 95 75 95 75 / 50 30 70 10 Albany 95 76 94 75 / 50 30 60 20 Valdosta 96 76 95 75 / 50 30 60 20 Cross City 92 76 94 75 / 50 20 60 20 Apalachicola 89 80 89 79 / 40 30 70 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KR SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM....Bunker AVIATION...Humphreys MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...KR HYDROLOGY...Reese