Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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786 FXUS62 KTAE 160515 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 115 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 846 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Updated rain chances through the next few hours as we eye two areas of remaining convection through the rest of tonight. Main area is currently moving through southwest Georgia and this has a history of isolated severe gusts across portions of Georgia. There is a little pocket of remaining instability as it moves into northern Florida through the few hours. Isolated strong and/or possibly severe wind gusts are possible for the next hour or two until this complex runs out of instability and/or moves into the Gulf. Across our southeast Alabama counties, a weak upper level trough and southeastward advancing outflow boundary is aiding in the support of showers and storms across southern Alabama. This boundary will continue to advance south and east into our Alabama counties through the next few hours and shower and thunderstorm chances should continue until around midnight or just after. Then, decreasing instability should allow for conditions to quiet down through the remainder of the overnight hours. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 We`ll remain on the western periphery of the Bermuda high on Tuesday. Moisture will continue to pump in from the southwest, while showers and thunderstorms generally fire up along the seabreeze. Highs for Tuesday remain toasty in the mid 90s; however, the question remains how much will the seabreeze storms and cloud cover mess with the forecast in terms of heat index. Should these form early enough, we may either briefly or never realize heat index values of 105 to 112 in the western FL Panhandle, portions of SE AL, the first tier of our southern most counties in GA (Seminole to Lowndes), and the western FL Big Bend. Confidence is too low at this time to hoist a Heat Advisory at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Mid and upper level troughing is expected to dig southward through the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday, which will start to lower 500 mb heights across the eastern Conus. This will similarly cause the Bermuda ridge to retreat eastward into the central Atlantic during this time. While much of the upper level forcing for ascent will be well to the north of the region, a frontal boundary associated with the upper level trough will lead to shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday night primarily in SE Alabama and SW Georgia. With PWATs near 1.8-2 inches areawide, afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms will be likely across all Florida zones; however, the frontal boundary will likely bring a weakening line of showers and thunderstorms to SE Alabama and SW Georgia late Wednesday night. Current forecast DCAPE values are generally expected to be between 600-800 J/Kg, which is not particularly high enough to cause severe downbursts; however, strong winds will still be possible with the strongest storms that develop across the region Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday will be their warmest, before an overall cooling trend starts, with highs peaking in the mid 90s areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The aforementioned mid and upper level trough will continue to progress eastward through the end of the work week before being re-enforced on Saturday and Sunday as an additional trough digs south into the great lakes Saturday. Through the middle to later half of the work week, the initial mid and upper level trough that digs into the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday remains fairly quasi-stationary, slightly lower 500 mb heights look to remain in place across the Deep South. This will keep high temperatures overall near seasonable levels in the low to mid 90s. This will similarly be in conjunction with increased rain chances, as the Bermuda ridge and surface high pressure system continually advect high PWATs from the deep tropics into the southeast through the extended. These increased PWATs will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the work week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Showers and a few storms still ongoing tonight should continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours. Some fog will be possible overnight, particularly in areas that got a good bit of rain. Another round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Outside of overnight fog and daytime convection, VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Favorable marine conditions continue through the work week and into the weekend with overall light southwesterly winds around 5-10 knots expected. Seas will generally run less than 2 feet. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast, especially in the early morning hours, the next several days. These showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce waterspouts, and boaters should remain vigilant while out on the water as conditions can rapidly deteriorate in and around these thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Outside of the possibility for elevated to high dispersions on Thursday, there are no fire weather concerns. Moisture will continue to increase each day, with showers and thunderstorms being possible each day. The highest chances will be over the FL counties and along the sea breeze, though chances increase inland at the end of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 More moisture works back into the region this week, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Localized street and nuisance flooding may be possible within any slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as is typical in the summer. No riverine flooding is expected in the next 7 to 10 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 76 95 76 / 70 10 70 20 Panama City 91 80 91 80 / 70 20 60 30 Dothan 95 75 95 75 / 70 10 70 20 Albany 94 75 95 75 / 60 20 60 20 Valdosta 95 75 96 76 / 60 20 60 20 Cross City 94 75 94 75 / 60 20 50 20 Apalachicola 89 79 90 80 / 70 20 60 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KR SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM....Bunker AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...KR HYDROLOGY...Reese