760
FXUS62 KTAE 160707
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
307 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A bit of troughing over the southeast CONUS along with ample
moisture will allow for more scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the area today. The highest coverage is
expected across Florida counties along the seabreeze, but additional
activity is also expected across the region. A few storms could be
on the stronger side with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall,
but widespread severe weather is not expected. Highs today are
forecast in the low to mid 90s with max heat indices in the 105 to
108 degree range. Once again opting to hold off on a heat advisory
at this point, since chances seem kind of borderline and there`s
some uncertainty with the initial onset and coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. An earlier start with decent coverage could preclude
most areas from reaching the 108 mark. Lows overnight are forecast
generally in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through the middle
of the week. This is thanks to an H5 trough over the eastern half of
the country keeping the heart of the ridge over the Atlantic Ocean.
Ample moisture in place, as illustrated by precipitable water values
(PWATs) above the 75th percentile, or 2", and the expected slow-
moving nature of the showers/storms means localized flooding could
be an issue both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Temperatures
should climb into the lower to middle 90s before any showers/storms
develop. Overnight lows are forecast to dip into the middle to upper
70s, which is above normal for mid-July.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Not a whole lot of change is expected later this week and into the
weekend. As a result, rain chances will remain pretty healthy, in
the 60 to 70 percent range, each afternoon through Sunday. The H5
ridge in the Atlantic will strengthen and retrograde a bit over the
region early next week. This should lead to slightly lower rain
chances early next week. However, there are some indications of an
inverted trough moving over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico near the end of the period; this may keep elevated rain
chances in the forecast early next week.

Very summer-like temperatures are expected with highs in the lower
to middle 90s and lows in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Showers and a few storms still ongoing tonight should continue to
dissipate over the next couple of hours. Some fog will be possible
overnight, particularly in areas that got a good bit of rain.
Another round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected today. Outside of overnight fog and daytime
convection, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Favorable marine conditions continue the rest of the week. Light to
moderate southwesterly to southerly winds are expected through
Saturday before turning more southeasterly early next week. Seas
will generally run less than 2 feet. Shower and thunderstorm chances
are in the forecast, especially in the early morning hours, the next
several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area as a
very warm and moist air mass remains in place. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Ample moisture hangs out over the region this week, keeping elevated
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Localized street and nuisance flooding may be possible within any
slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as is typical in the summer.
No riverine flooding is expected in the next 7 to 10 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  76  93  76 /  70  30  70  20
Panama City   91  80  91  80 /  50  20  70  30
Dothan        94  75  94  75 /  60  30  70  30
Albany        93  76  94  76 /  60  20  60  20
Valdosta      94  76  94  76 /  60  30  70  20
Cross City    93  76  92  76 /  70  30  70  20
Apalachicola  89  79  89  80 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese