579
FXUS01 KWBC 140801
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Jul 14 2024 - 12Z Tue Jul 16 2024

....There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday
and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on
Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday...

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat begins to build across the
Central Plains, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast...

A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great
Lakes to the Northern Plains will move to the Great Lakes/Middle
Mississippi Valley and trail off into the Northern High Plains by
Monday.  A wave of low pressure over the Northern Plains will move
northeastward into Ontario, Canada, by Tuesday, bringing the cold
front into the Great Lakes to the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Central Plains. The boundary will produce showers and
severe thunderstorms over the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi
Valley on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through Monday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Further, there is an increased threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots and hail two inches or
greater, mainly over parts of the Northern Plains.

Also, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Great Lakes into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore,
upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce showers and
thunderstorms from parts of the Western Gulf Coast eastward to the
Southeast. Additionally, moisture over the Southwest and diurnal
heating will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and
Central/Southern Rockies.

On Monday, a wave of low pressure along the front over the Upper
Midwest will pull the front back over parts of the Great Lakes,
creating showers and severe thunderstorms in some parts of the
area. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes from Monday through Tuesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley
into the Great Lakes from Monday into Tuesday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

Also, upper-level impulses will create showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Lower Great Lakes into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore, upper-level energy and tropical
moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the
Southeast.

Meanwhile, an upper-level subtropical high over the Great
Basin/Southwest into the Central/Southern Rockies will weaken,
allowing heat to expand over portions of the central and eastern
U.S. on Sunday into Tuesday. Confidence is increasing in extremely
dangerous, potentially deadly heat, particularly for urban areas
in the Southeast and East Coast beginning Monday. Many daily
record highs are possible for the East Coast, and numerous warm
overnight lows will provide little relief from the heat overnight.
Heat stress will build rapidly for those without adequate cooling
or hydration.



Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$