458
FXUS01 KWBC 062040
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 07 2024 - 00Z Tue Jul 09 2024

...Extremely dangerous heat continues in the West as heat and
humid persisting in the eastern U.S....

...Focus of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall expected to
shift south from the central Plains this evening into Oklahoma on
Sunday...

...Beryl is forecast to re-intensify over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico and make landfall as a hurricane around the central Texas
coast on Monday...

...Critical fire danger spreading from the upper Great Basin
toward the Four Corners for the remainder of the weekend...

A relatively slow-moving weather pattern has already set up across
the U.S. as the weekend progresses.  This pattern, which features
a anomalously strong ridge of high pressure in the western U.S.
and a weaker ridge over the East Coast, will sustain a heatwave
for much of the West Coast states while oppressive heat and
humidity will continue along the Eastern Seaboard, down into the
Southeast and Deep South.  The staunch upper ridge in the western
U.S. will sustain an intense, widespread and long duration heat
wave for the West Coast. Widespread temperature records are
expected to be tied or broken with highs in the upper 90s to 110s
likely up and down the West Coast and portions of the Great Basin.
 High temperatures soaring into the 110s this afternoon over the
Central Valley of California are expected to be slightly lower for
the next couple of days.  These conditions remain extremely
dangerous and potentially deadly if not taken seriously. The
multi-day nature of the heat and record warm overnight
temperatures will cause heat stress to build in people without
adequate cooling and hydration. Excessive Heat Watches, Warnings
and Heat Advisories are in effect for much of the West. Hazardous
heat will continue in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today. Heat
index values approaching 110 degrees this afternoon in the
Mid-Atlantic region will be lowered to near 100 degrees on Sunday
as slightly drier air arrives behind a front.  Heat Advisories
stretch from upstate New York down the East Coast to the Alabama
coast.  Warm and humid air ahead of the front will support
scattered thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic coastal plains into
the Southeast for the next couple of days as the front stalls just
east of the Appalachians.  Meanwhile, the intense heat paired with
dry windy conditions will support a Critical Risk of Fires over
portions of southern Idaho today and southern Utah on Sunday.

Over the mid-section of the country, a persistent upper-level
trough will offer below normal temperatures for early July for
much of the region.  Upper-level disturbances digging
southeastward from the northern/central Rockies behind the trough
axis into Sunday will develop a cold front and a low pressure
wave, leading to heavy showers and strong to severe storms to
develop and expand over the south-central Plains.  It appears that
the focus of the most active thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will
shift south from the Nebraska and Kansas this evening into mainly
in Oklahoma on Sunday when flash flooding will be a concern.  By
Monday, the dynamics associated with the front is forecast to dip
farther south into Texas as Hurricane Beryl is forecast to make
landfall near the central Texas coast.

Tropical Storm Beryl, currently located in the Gulf of Mexico, is
forecast to intensify as it moves northwestward in the general
direction of the Texas coast.  Beryl is forecast to strengthen
into a hurricane on Sunday before making landfall around the
central Texas Coast on Monday.  There remains some uncertainty on
the forward speed of the tropical cyclone through the next couple
of days as Beryl interacts with the upper-level trough in the
mid-section of the country.  Nevertheless, the outer rainbands
associated with Beryl are forecast to reach much of the Texas
coast on Sunday, with the intensity of the rain and wind
increasing through Sunday night.  Hurricane conditions can be
expected to reach the central Texas coast on Monday with the
heaviest rain falling near and just east of Beryl`s track where 5
to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches are expected
across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas
beginning late Sunday.  Please refer to the National Hurricane
Center for the latest on Beryl`s forecast track and intensity.

Kong/Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$